1. Do NOT Panic, being exercised means that your counterpart in the trade (the option buyer) is giving up the time value of the shares, and you are the beneficiary.
2. Do NOT make the mistake your counterpart made and turn around and exercise your long term option, you will be giving up even more time value than your counterpart gave up.
What to do next depends on whether you are assigned a call or a put. Let’s take a look at a practical but fictitious example:
Let’s say that you entered a PCRCC on AAPL in July 2004, and then you rolled over the trade to September. Note that the September short calls are ITM. The stock price has reached >$36 with only 9 days to expiration.


Early that day, you check your account and find that you are short 100 shares of AAPL, and that the short calls are no longer there. Your trade now looks like this:

As you can see, your counterpart in the trade (the call buyer), gave up the remaining time value in the trade (between $0.05 to $0.10/share) in favor of the shares which you are now short.

Your risk graph looks quite acceptable, but you may not want the cash requirements for the short stock. Your job is simply to cover the short stock at the market price, which will have very little slippage and commission costs, and SELL an equivalent number of options to the next month (1 October 30 call in this case). Here is the result:

As you can see, there is no loss, rather, your cost has reduced somewhat while your profits had increased. This demonstration does not include commissions, so you need to figure that with your broker, but I recommend that you don’t reproduce this trade with such small number of contracts, this is for demonstration purposes only.
Next, let’s take a look at an example with EBAY for the PUT side:
The day after the January earnings report on EBAY, the stock drops 18 points leaving my 115 puts well within the money, with only one day to expiration. While the trade is profitable, and you may want to close it at that point, there is an alternative: to run the remaining PUT options as a Put Ratio Calendar.

To transform the PCRCC into a PRC, I would have simply closed all the call options, both long and short leaving only the PUT positions, here is the resulting trade:

The risk graph illustrates the bearish trade that results when the call portion is removed, and the increase in cost of the trade.

However, with only one day left to expiration, I also find that I have been assigned 500 shares of EBAY at 115, as a result of the short puts in my account. Here is the resulting trade with the assignment:

The risk graph shows that the trade may be too bearish, if there is a bounce after the big decline in the stock price. Further, I’d rather not see that large stock position in my account.

As for the AAPL example above, I remember to:
1. Sell the 500 shares of EBAY at the market price.
2. Short 5 put options of EBAY with the next month expiration. In this case, sell February options.
3. You may find that the 115 puts are no longer available for that month, since the stock has declined so much. If you insist in continuing this trade, you could sell Feb 100 puts (which are closer to the money) and compensate for the cost by selling more puts. Here is the resulting trade:

Do not feel that you have to continue the trade under these conditions. You can simply sell the assigned shares, and sell the April 115 puts at the market, and keep the profit. You must consider If this modification is better than any other alterative trade that you could place on EBAY or other underlying. This is for demonstration purposes only. Assignment is usually in your favor, but if you are too close to expiration, you don’t need to panic either.

This is the resulting PRC. Only days later, the trade would have given us additional profits:

12 comments:
Hi Juan,
This is pretty cool. Kinda reminds me of one of my favorite blogs - altercation on msnbc.com.
I think it'll be more exciting the more frequently it is updated with occasionally commentary from other folks. I know it's easier said than done.
A year or two from now I expect this site to blow up.
Kudos!
Let's see if the famous AEOS trade can be posted succesfully here.
http://platinum.optionetics.com/cgi-bin/platinumv30/op3email.php?trade_name=1|AEOS™_date=2005-03-04&sym=AQU&num_legs=15&tra0=14:C05:27.500:1.807:AEOS:2005-03-15:0.00000000:FFFF99:0:0&tra1=-14:C05:27.500:1.75:AEOS:2005-03-08:43.01699829:FFFF99:0:0&tra2=14:D05:27.500:2.586:AEOS:2005-04-07:63.86199951:E8E8E8:0:0&tra3=-14:D05:27.500:2.193:AEOS:2005-03-15:28.57500076:E8E8E8:0:0&tra4=6:P05:27.500:0.1:AEOS:2005-04-08:47.80699921:E8E8E8:0:0&tra5=-6:P05:27.500:1.100:AEOS:2005-03-23:34.42599869:E8E8E8:0:0&tra6=16:E05:27.500:1:AEOS:2005-05-10:52.51300049:FFCCFF:0:0&tra7=-16:E05:27.500:3.150:AEOS:2005-04-07:43.97100067:FFCCFF:0:0&tra8=16:Q05:27.500:0.650:AEOS:2005-05-10:38.21599960:FFCCFF:0:0&tra9=-6:Q05:27.500:1.550:AEOS:2005-05-05:77.01799774:FFCCFF:0:0&tra10=-10:Q05:27.500:0.670:AEOS:2005-04-08:41.11000061:FFCCFF:0:0&tra11=32:H05:27.500:3.400:AEOS:2005-03-07:0.00000000:99FF66:0:0&tra12=-32:H05:27.500:2.480:AEOS:2005-05-10:40.67200089:99FF66:0:0&tra13=32:T05:27.500:1.650:AEOS:2005-03-07:99.76200104:66CCFF:0:0&tra14=-32:T05:27.500:2:AEOS:2005-05-10:37.07899857:66CCFF:0:0
Hi Juan,
I need some advice on how to adjust this trade.
03-09-05 Sold QAAGI JUL05 45 Call 0.3/0.35 0.329 45.2 265 52764 63
03-09-05 Bought YHCAL JAN06 60 Call 0.5/0.55 0.524 44.1 0 9568 252
Entry Debit Profit Max Profit# Max Risk# Delta (Shares) Gamma Vega Theta
$50.00 $15.00 $Unlimited $-50.00 10.53 0.085 $7.86 $-0.00
Downside Breakeven# Upside Breakeven# Max Profit/Max Risk# Max Profit/Debit#
34.28 58.39 Unlimited% Unlimited%
The trade's profitability keeps going down and I'm afraid if I don't do something I might lose everything.
Thanks.
Hi Juan: As I've told you in the past I have been looking for a general purpose trade that can be adj extensively. An example might be to put a put cal on to finace a put on a stcok you think is going down I also have been looking at GET and put call ratio to find stocks where the IV end up in the lower range because the stock has paused or is in a lul..I have a trade to share with you and the other readers that may be able to become a good trade. Any thoughts are appreciated.
The stock is wellpoint WLP It is in a wave 5 in get. This stock has been very strong and the vol is in the lower part of the range. The catalyst might be a split do on june 1.The trade would be:
sep 135 put $7.8 30 times
sep 135 call 9.3 30 times
jun 135 put 3.5 -18 times
jun 135 call 3.7 -15 times
I don't have plat so I can't send you a risk graph.Put it up and see if we can get a discussion going.The sizes can obviously be cut in 1/2 for smaller cost.You have more experience with this trade and probably would adj differently because of the way you think the stock will move. I'm biased up after the split
Regards
Juan,
What do you think of the fact that we're selling a low front month IV?
Juan,
Can you explain further what you mean by "I do NOT recommend anyone to use AdvancedGet for any sort of Elliott wave analysis"
Do you mean Advanced Get is not the best software for Elliott Wave analysis or that you're not necessarily giving a plug for Advanced Get when it comes to Elliott Wave Analysis and that folks can use whatever means they use for Elliott Wave analysis?
Just curious.
Best Regards,
OptionFox
I am saying that AdvancedGet does not consider all the possible variations of corrective waves described in the literature, and thus it may give misleading information or at the very least overly simplified. Visit Elliottician.com, an Australian company that produces a software that considers all possible waves and structures. I do my own counts by visual impression, channel analysis, or by painstaking analysis using the Neely method (not recommended for the average trader — Book: Mastering Elliott wave by Glenn Neely).
This is not to say that you could not use the suggested methodology, like the type I and type II buys and sales, as described in e-signal seminars. But their models, in my opinion, are NOT an Elliott wave-dependent system. Fortunately, since the e-signal system uses other indicators such as the “railroad tracks”, Fibonnacci numbers, moving averages and Stochastics oscillators, it may be successful often enough. I wish I could use these systems reliably, but my experience has been dismal. I would rather use other methodology. I have proposed that they allow you to do searches retrospectively, so that we could back test their type I and II trades, but they have not done that. Since I can only test their methods prospectively, I am not sure what would happen in different markets and it just takes too long to do the prospective testing. I have used their searches, but I often find myself disagreeing with the count because of basic Elliott rules. Following some of the trades suggested by Optionetics in their seminar, using these methods, often turn into losers of very limited gains in my hands. Other methods that have been introduced to us as sure fire systems, have failed in my hands when I have done backtesting, such as the 5MSF. I tested ALL candidates that fit the definition, retrospectively for 2003, and I did not have more success than if I had randomly picked stocks that year. Obviously they have had success in the past, but there is more to it than what they describe. Recognizing the catalyst is paramount, as GF would say, but that in itself is an art! Based on a lot of experience.
Be aware that in the 1990's we were ALL successful, no matter what method we used. I for one, picked 30 stocks that I could watch and I followed my own Elliott wave count. When I thought that the stocks were done correcting, I would buy calls, a large number of them, and invariably hit the jack pot. You cannot do this anymore. This is why all these methods, created in the 90's do not seem to work anymore. You simply have to adjust your trading to a more conservative approach. I have tested different approaches for the last 3 years, including all the others taught by Optionetics. I have restricted my trades to the 3 systems: the dragonfly, the PCRCC,a nd the Sarmiento system. I think they work because I have entered as many restricting rules as possible, thus reducing the effect of chance. I have all of them described in PDF files, that I am willing to share so people can test and critique, and share their experiences.
Juan
Hi Juan,
You refer to Elliotician.com. Have you done their course or used their software? Is it better than the AGET software or any good compared to the manual analysis you've learnt through "Mastertering Elliot Wave by Glenn Nealy"?
Mike
I don't think I would need their course. I have used their software, and it would give me several alternatives to every count, which is appropriate in my way of thinking, but quite confusing for a beginner, hence the need for a course.
You might be dissapointed if you wanted to do a search for stocks at the bottom of a wave 4, that is just not the way it works. YOU supply the stock, the software gets you the count. I suggest you sign up for their newsletter and start getting some sample counts, and read Prechter's books, for example.
Neely is quite advanced, and rather conversome. The amount of efford needed to generate a count, is just not worth it.
The idea of the Elliott wave to me, is to get in in a wave 2 bottom and take the ride up to new highs. The best approach to get in at the beginning of a wave 3 would be with the volume spike approach, which I have defined in the Sarmiento System. In this market, 5/10 spikers would actually turn out into wave 3's. You could do the search as suggested, using Platinum, but the Elliott wave count is not for the novice.
I will be posting on the Elliott wave in future blogs.
I have received e-mails from people disappointed about my comments on AGet. I want to make sure that my comments are taken with the same dose of skepticism you should put into the abilities of AGet. Go test the system on paper, and do some follow up, and determine if your ability to pick winners under AGet is better than random or even average performance.
I would like people to get informed, understand and practice the Elliott wave before taking any software counts for granted. This is not as simple as some make it sound. I for one, after all >10 years of E.W. studying cannot vouch for the predictive value of the theory, particularly in times of corrective markets, when double or even triple combinations (abc-x-abc-x-abc) are common place.
To be orthodox about Elliott counts, you could only calculate web structures 2 or 3 monowaves behind real time, which would leave it up to me to guess what the 2 or 3 most recent waves represent. It is best to have 2 or 3 alternative guesses, and see how they develop, and rule out them one by one, until we are left with the real count. Unfortunately, AGet gives you only one alternative, and then “changes its mind” as the evidence mounts that the original forecast was wrong, leaving me with a bad trade, I should have not entered in the first place.
AGet’s type I and II set ups, actually depend on the counts in a limited way, and rely on moving averages, Fibonacci and Oscillators more than they do on EW theory, so you may get good results anyway. This is why is so important that you do your own testing. In my hands, this set ups are no different than random trading. BUT that is my experience, you should create your own.
Finally, AGet does excel in assisting with back testing, if you use it in combination with Platinum (get does not allow retrospective searches, but platinum does). One question to my fellow traders: Who among you has heard of AGet by means other than Optionetics?
Juan,
Two things:
1. Have you or do you know anybody who uses Wizetrade to trade? Any thoughts or comments on that software?
2. As far as AGET, I thought the reader's choice award in the Technical Analysis of Stock and Commodities magazine meant that there were a lot of pros using it? Am I mistaken?
Best Regards.
I have not used Wizetrade, perhaps one of our bloggers can comment.
Will try and check out what the reader's choice award in the Technical Analysis of Stock and Commodities magazine say about AGet.
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