Meanwhile, the long-term chart remains quite bearish.
I have closed the PETM position for a 36% profit ($700 over my $1960 investment). I have an open order on PETM. I explain the reasoning later.
The Elliott wave count on PALM indicates a strong long-term decline to come. Here is the analysis:
Note how the Oscillators do NOT indicate an oversold condition. That means that the stock may continue to go down in price in the days ahead. Time is of the essence. The same can be said of FDX, so entry should be done whenever possible.
A sorter term analysis is bearish too:
6 comments:
I don't like the volume. Only 600K upto now.
See my other comments in the relevant blog.
The volume on PALM, if that is what you are referring to, was 10.5M for the day. My order got filled, but now I have buyer's remorse as the stock is Up after hours on news....
Juan,
I got home just before 6pm here in the UK (which equates to 13:00 Eastern Standard Time, US), signed on the computer screen to IB and just as I saw the low price of FDX of the combination order still loaded from the day before (Buy Jan06 $85 Call, Sell Oct05 $85 Call). I missed it!! I was too slow to grab the bargain. It was at about $6.00, perhaps I could have got $5.90. Which is my fault as I should have put on a day order at $5.90. Maybe I could have got it…. Especially as Juan has said “Time is of the essence. The same can be said of FDX, so entry should be done whenever possible.” **Smiles**.
RE(Juan): “There are other candidates to consider today. SGR, has once again trigger my system, how long can we ignore it?”
We are all responsible for our own actions, so I am only using this as some backtesting exercise. With SGR, on the 15th September 2005 “I tried with a limit price of $3.20 and then $3.40 and failed.” This was for Buy 2 Jan06 $22.5 Calls and sell 1 Oct05 Call.
If I there had been successful fill on that order at $3.40, I would now have a profit of $105. This represents a 30% return.
I also looked at the $25 strike. If I had bought 2 Jan06 $25 @ $1.40 and sold 1 Oct05 Strike @ $0.45 for a total debit of $235, I would have made a profit of $110. This represents a return of 46%.
As to the current state for the outlook on SGR upside profitability to where it might go, I have not got Elliott Wave of Adv Get, only Metastock. What I am seeing is
Williams’ %R suggesting overselling, at a value of 12 today (23rd Sept05) a rise of 10 from the 2 value yesterday (22nd Sept 05).
On the other hand RSI has a value of 75, with a slightly lower hish. (Only slightly lower.) This is a possible impending reversal. But the Williams%R indicates a further upward hike BREAKING THROUGH THE RESITANCE OF $25. What would be the projection Juan?
RE(Juan): “The Elliott wave count on PALM indicates a strong long-term decline to come. “Note how the Oscillators do NOT indicate an oversold condition. That means that the stock may continue to go down in price in the days ahead. Time is of the essence. The same can be said of FDX, so entry should be done whenever possible.”
For PALM Williams’ %R (14) indicates an over buying at a value of 95.28, even after the drop!! ***However, if I observe where this occurance has happened on the PALM graph recently (3 times), the stock has increased in price.*** However, there is as you might expect a very sharp crossing of –DI (14) above +DI (14). The later value is now at 17, with ADX going downwards, currently at 29, suggesting that the downward trend may continue.
Juan as to FDX, BBBY, and RAD I will look at those over the weekend.
NB: Juan, I have just seen your comment on PALM, as I C&P my scribblings from WordXP into this Blog. Look and see whether that the Williams' %R Indicator corresponds with your indicator on Elliotician.
Oops!!
Sorry my fault on the volume
:)
Juan,
RAD? Can’t form a definite opinion.
BBBY
Previous peak on the 29th July 2005 at $6.99 (High), close $45.90. A 23.6% retracement from that peak using previous low on the 22nd March 2005 ($35.51), is at $44.42, the previous peak on the 11th Nov 2004. Also, $44.42, formed the previous resistance on three consecutive days 17th, 20th, 21st June 2005. Broken on the 22nd June 2005 before a $2.50 fall on the 23rd June 2005.
Perhaps $41.78 by early Oct05?
So could it be heading to $44.42 area again Mid Oct 05?
What do you think Juan?
Juan,
For FDX, very strong signal with +DI (14) crossing above –DI (14) dramatically and ADX rising. FDX has broken out its channel. However from previous rises, could there be profit taking before the move upwards (14th Oct 2003, 17th March 2004)?
Just some thoughts.
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