1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.
I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.
I Hope this helps,
Juan
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The long-term chart show us that AMLN is in a wave Y of a double 3 (D3). The target for this wave Y may already have been met. In order to study the possibility of a reversal on AMLN we have to look at the Supercycle wave Y in detail (see second chart).
Wave Y starts on mid 2001 and as you can see, my preferred count is a double zigzag (dz). This is a valid count for the Y wave of a D3, wave Y's can be an a-b-c (flat, or zigzag) or a w-x-y (dz or d3). Having established this dz as a likely count, we need to examine wave (y) of a double zigzag. Our target for the end of wave (y) should be between $40-$60. So AMLN should have another rally between May 2006 and Feb 2007 (as per our RET time targets).
Wave (y) of (dz) above should be a zigzag, but it could also be a double zigzag. The best count that would fit wave (y) seems to me that is itselft a primary DZ (see count below). We should expect, according to these counts, that AMLN will continue to correct for a while longer, likely going below $30 between now and Feb 2006. At that time, the rally to $40 or higher will get underway.
Our job is to prepare for that bottom, by looking at oscillators for a buy signal, and an increase in volume or a spike in price, whichl should mark the end of the primary wave Y currently in progress.
7 comments:
To everybody,
The last week has been very interesting. I decided on Friday to exit GGC, AAPL, RHAT, and DNA. Today they all went up, so if I had stayed in I would have gained an extra $500. But it doesn't matter, I still made money. So I am losing on PETM and AMZN. I don't care because I am $700 up.
Let us sort out some re-entries **Smiles**
RIMM,
Currently at $61.50. On Wednesday 26th October 2005, it went down to $51. It is down $0.91 today.
Depending on where you place the Fibonacci retracement, it has either done a 38.2% retracement or it is close to it. I see a doji.
JUAN what is your current projection and wave count on this one please?
ROLLING ‘RAMBLINGS’ UPDATE. Identified Stocks for movement. Ticker followed by the date of Juan’s posting.
Please post any errors I have made and these ‘ramblings’ by me will be updated in the future
AAPL (17th Aug 2005 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $49.20 and $51.30 in August 2005. (12th October 2005) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $63.50 and $74.50 between Nov 2005 and Feb 2006. AAPL, projection of $60, using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. I still think that is possible. 31st October 2005 – Closed up $2.61 to $57.04. There is presently an ascending wedge retracement, so beware.
AMLN (19th September 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $30 and $53 between Dec 2005 and Dec 2008. Long term high possibly $94. AMLN (31st October 2005) Juan’s Elliotician projection analysis suggests a correction “going below $30 between now and Feb 2006. At that time, the rally to $40 or higher will get under way.” 31st October 2005 – Closed at $33.60. There is a double top to this trade ##Caution##
AMZN (17th Oct 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $55.00 and $64.00 between 10th Nov 2005 and mid January 2006.
In my previous posting, “AMZN a projection of $50.12, using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move.”
Look back a year and there was the same drop, but then a rise back up (A warning sign of predictability). I have created a Fibonacci retracement from the low of the drop in October 2004, to the high at the end of December 2004. I then moved that retracement move to the low of today. IF, and I repeat IF, we get the same move up that gives a target of $52 at the end of December 2005. A lot of Ifs, but it is going to be interesting. The mistake now would be for me to add further to these positions on AMZN. 31st October 2005 – Closed $39.86 It is just edging up. Retracement from the current fall, $40.64 (23.6%) and $41.85 (38.2%).
AVID (6th September 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to $58.50 an $75 between Nov 2005 and Dec 2005.
31st October 2005 – Closed at $49.24. In the last week this has moved up from $40 to $50.
BBY (4th Oct 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of ??? (***HK did ask, but Juan and myself were debating system methodology on the Blogger***) My GUESS is $40 and $33 between Oct 2005 and Nov 2005. ###Caution### 31st October 2005 – Closed at $44.26. Has this now become a bullish trade?
CREE (13th Aug 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $19.00 and $9.00 between July 2005 and February 2006. 31st October 2005 – Closed $24.04 This does not look promising.
DBD (2nd Oct 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $22.00 and $7.00 between 2008 and 2013. A long term projection. Possibly Zero!! 31st October 2005 – Closed at $38.14
DE (8th Sept 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $59.00 and $44.00 (possibly as low as$30) between Oct 2005 and June 2005.
31st October 2005 – Closed at $60.68 Recent low is at $56.99
DNA (12th October 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $100 and $137.50 (possibly $156) between Nov 2005 and Feb 2006.
DNA has broken upwards from a small wedge pattern and there has been an explosive move. Perhaps it will return back up to $94-$95. +DI(14) has broken above –DI(14). However there is a wedge with the trend formation, indicating a possible retracement (pullback) for re-entry.
FDX (21st Sept 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $94 and $106 between Dec 2005 and early 2005. After the pause or a retracement , continues to move on up. 31st October 2005 – Closed $91.93
GDT (BEARISH Trade) Juans projection using Elliotician of between $60 and $48 looks on track. I haven’t entered this one, so far. A previous low of $60 made during a days trading is a possible target. It still wants to go down.
31st October 2005 – Closed at $63.00
GGC (BULLISH Trade HKs find) This is still looking good. Having now exited, will now wait for a pullback. Possible resistance at $30. Possible retracement for the next up swing at $27 (38.2%).
NFLX (19th Oct 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $20.75 and $14.50 between Nov 2005 and March 2006.
NFLX, the ADX has turned on this one, with -DI(14) going above +DI(14). This confirms Juans recent observations. A 161% Fibonacci projection of $20.68 perhaps. Juans projection is between $14.5 and $20.75
31st October 2005 – Closed at $26.38. I think this will move downwards today (Tuesday 1st Nov 2005).
PALM (23rd Sept 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $18.50 and $7.00 between May 2005 and Dec 2005. 31st October 2005 – Closed at $25.64. This has just been steadily falling. My guess is wait for another rally to about $27 (23.6% retracement)
PETM (25th August 2005/23rd Sept 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $21.50 and $15.50 between Nov 2005 and Feb 2006.
31st October 2005 – Closed at $23.50 PETM may now have hit the 50% retracement level ($23.75) at $23.62 high. I am now expecting a fall.
RHAT (27th Sept 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $27.00 and $50.00 between Sept 2005 and May 2006.
RHAT fibonacci projection of $24.20 using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. Again this is possible.
31st October 2005 – Closed at $23.10
RIMM (27th Sept 2005 – 29th Sept 2005 -- BEARISH Trade) No projection given by Juan on this one I can find.
31st October 2005 – Closed at $61.49. Currently at the 38.2% retracement line, with a doji.
RRGB (13th Aug 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $25 and $8 between Oct 2005 (April 2006) and Nov 2005 (Nov 2006). ### Will post update next time###
SGR (31st August 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $31.00 and $41.00 (possibly as high as $52) between Dec 2005 and Oct 2006.
SGR Currently up to $26.51. I am not in the trade unfortunately, but I have a projection of $28.42 using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. Watching for a retracement before the target before entering. Juans previous projection was $30.50 to $40.05 short term and $30.50 and $52 long term. One to watch for an entry perhaps. $25.31 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). $24.34 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
31st October 2005 – Closed at $26.80 This looks as if it will fall at the current high.
SLAB (24th Oct 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Using the light green box, Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $36.50 and $46.50 between Nov 2005 and early Feb 2006.
Using the red box, Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $39.00 and $54 between mid Dec 2005 and late 2006.
SLAB Juans likely projection is at $46. The 38.2% retracement has occurred very quickly. I think it is time to enter this one, as Juan has done today (Wed 26th Oct 2005). Using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move, would give $34.92.
I exited the position with a $130 profit. This will retrace again for another possible re-entry. This is extremely volatile and looks as if it will move up or down in a large move.
XLNX (10th October 2005 – BEARISH Trade was alerted, but NO Elliotician projection target given by Juan.
31st October 2005 – Closed at $223.95. Possible entry for this one. It is now at the 38.2% retracement line from the previous large move down.
In Summary four potential trades for entry or re-entry from the above list;
NFLX
PETM
RIMM
XLNX
All these could go wrong, but they could go right. **Smiles**
I hope this helps.
I am looking at these.
I have NFLX in the challenge account.
I had RIMM until recently as a bearish trade, it may be premature to enter a bearish trade, as I see no "sell" signal yet.
XLNX is a good candidate. The 38.2% retracement is complete. The sell signal is imminent I think.
PETM May have bottomed out after a double bottom between Sept. and Oct.
ROLLING ‘RAMBLINGS’ UPDATE. Identified Stocks for movement. Ticker followed by the date of Juan’s posting.
Please post any errors I have made and these ‘ramblings’ by me will be updated in the future
AAPL (17th Aug 2005 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $49.20 and $51.30 in August 2005. (12th October 2005) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $63.50 and $74.50 between Nov 2005 and Feb 2006. AAPL, projection of $60, using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. I still think that is possible. 1st November 2005 – Closed at $57.50. There is presently an ascending wedge retracement. There is a doji at the lower end of the bar, this suggests a correction.
AMLN (19th September 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $30 and $53 between Dec 2005 and Dec 2008. Long term high possibly $94. AMLN (31st October 2005) Juan’s Elliotician projection analysis suggests a correction “going below $30 between now and Feb 2006. At that time, the rally to $40 or higher will get under way.” 1st November 2005 – Closed at $33.27. There is a double top to this trade ##Caution## ADX is falling and –DI(14) has crossed above +DI(14). Confirms Juans potential projection could occur.
AMZN (17th Oct 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $55.00 and $64.00 between 10th Nov 2005 and mid January 2006.
In my previous posting, “AMZN a projection of $50.12, using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move.”
Look back a year and there was the same drop, but then a rise back up (A warning sign of predictability). I have created a Fibonacci retracement from the low of the drop in October 2004, to the high at the end of December 2004. I then moved that retracement move to the recent low. IF, and I repeat IF, we get the same move up that gives a target of $51.14 at the end of December 2005. A lot of Ifs, but it is going to be interesting. The mistake now would be for me to add further to these positions on AMZN1st November 2005 – Closed $40.37 It is just edging up. Retracement from the current fall, $40.64 (23.6%) and $41.85 (38.2%). The high of the 1st Nov 2005 hit the retracement. In Feb 2005, a fall by AMZN saw two attempts to cross the 23.6% Fibonacci line fail. So we may see the pattern replicated as Juan has suggested a potential fall back to $35.0
AVID (6th September 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to $58.50 an $75 between Nov 2005 and Dec 2005. 1st November 2005 – Closed at $50.15. In the last week this has moved up from $40 to $50. A $11.24 rise in Aug/Sept 2005, and now a similar move up in late October 2005. (Note the web formation). This is a third wave move, which will be the strongest. Looks to me as if we should jump on this MAYBE?
BBY (4th Oct 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of ??? (***HK did ask, but Juan and myself were debating system methodology on the Blogger***) My GUESS is $40 and $33 between Oct 2005 and Nov 2005. ###Caution### 1st November 2005 – Closed at $44.54. Has this now become a bullish trade?
CREE (13th Aug 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $19.00 and $9.00 between July 2005 and February 2006. 1st November 2005 – Closed $24.33 I thought that this didn’t look promising, HOWEVER, look at the explosive wedge. This could move now, downwards??
DBD (2nd Oct 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $22.00 and $7.00 between 2008 and 2013. A long term projection. Possibly Zero!! 1st November 2005 – Closed at $36.10.
DE (8th Sept 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $59.00 and $44.00 (possibly as low as $30) between Oct 2005 and June 2005. 1st November 2005 – Closed at $61.10 Recent low is at $56.99. Has this now become a BULLISH trade?
DNA (12th October 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $100 and $137.50 (possibly $156) between Nov 2005 and Feb 2006. DNA has broken upwards from a small wedge pattern and there has been an explosive move. Perhaps it will return back up to $94-$95. +DI(14) has broken above –DI(14). However there is a wedge with the trend formation, indicating a possible retracement (pullback) for re-entry. 1st November 2005 -- Closed at $91.05. Still going up.
FDX (21st Sept 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $94 and $106 between Dec 2005 and early 2005. After the pause or a retracement , continues to move on up. 1st November 2005 -- $91.73 -- A down tick day. We have seen a $3.00 rise. Now looking for a retracement back to $900 to $91 range, before entry.
GDT (BEARISH Trade) Juans projection using Elliotician of between $60 and $48 looks on track. I haven’t entered this one, so far. A previous low of $60 made during a days trading is a possible target. It still wants to go down.
1st November 2005 – Closed at $63.10. In one day, almost a $2 range, which saw a retracement above the 23.6% Fibonacci line. This could move downwards very quickly.
GGC (BULLISH Trade HKs find) This is still looking good. Having now exited, will now wait for a pullback. Possible resistance at $29.7. Possible retracement for the next up swing at $27.6 (38.2%).
I have looked more closely at the Fibonacci lines today on GGC. Using (H:$29.52, L:$24.36), the 23.6% is at $27.60. Using (H: $29.52, C: $24.36) the 23.6% is at $28.30 and the 38.2% is at $27.6) NOTE the over lap on the $27.6 which would be a current 38.% pull back similar to before, since the low point. So $27.9 could happen today. If it does then perhaps a re-entry point.
NFLX (19th Oct 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $20.75 and $14.50 between Nov 2005 and March 2006.
NFLX, the ADX has turned on this one, with -DI(14) going above +DI(14). This confirms Juans recent observations. A 161% Fibonacci projection of $20.68 perhaps. Juans projection is between $14.5 and $20.75. 1st November 2005 – Closed at $25.68. As an exercise, I have placed a Fibonacci retracement on the 18th Oct 2005 ‘tick’ and the 26.1% retracement is at the low seen on the 26th Oct 2005 ($23.81). The 423.6% projection is at $20.68. I have then placed a Fibonacci retracement on the high $29.49 (18th Oct 2005) and the low (26th October 2005), the 161% projection is AGAIN at $20.68. It looks promising for a further fall.
PALM (23rd Sept 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $18.50 and $7.00 between May 2005 and Dec 2005. 1st November 2005 – Closed at $24.76. This has just been steadily falling. My guess is wait for another rally to about $27 (23.6% retracement), although now I would suggest perhaps at above $26.00.
PETM (25th August 2005/23rd Sept 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $21.50 and $15.50 between Nov 2005 and Feb 2006.
1st November 2005 – Closed at $23.79 PETM has now crossed the 50% retracement level ($23.75) at $23.62, and hit the resistance of $23.95/$24.00, to close $23.79 close to the 50% Fibonacci line. This could go either way.
RHAT (27th Sept 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $27.00 and $50.00 between Sept 2005 and May 2006. 1st November 2005 – Closed at $23.88. RHAT fibonacci projection of $24.20 using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move, has been met. So, expect a retracement to 23.6% ($23.10) and/or 38.2% ($22.50).
RIMM (27th Sept 2005 – 29th Sept 2005 -- BEARISH Trade) No projection given by Juan on this one I can find.
1st November 2005 – Closed at $60.52. Currently at the 38.2% retracement line, with a doji. Juan projects a further movement upwards to $75-$83 in December 2005.
RRGB (13th Aug 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $25 and $8 between Oct 2005 (April 2006) and Nov 2005 (Nov 2006). Using the high on the 30th June 2005 or on the 9th August 2005, to the low on the 22nd Sept 2005, there has now been a 38.2% retracement. Interestingly, from the 22nd September, there has been a five wave Elliott retracement up to a high of $ 49.16. It is still rising on volume. So my guess is that it will rise a day or two for a pullback (MAYBE??)
SGR (31st August 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $31.00 and $41.00 (possibly as high as $52) between Dec 2005 and Oct 2006. I am not in the trade unfortunately, but I have a projection of $28.42 using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. Watching for a retracement before the target before entering. Juans previous projection was $30.50 to $40.05 short term and $30.50 and $52 long term. One to watch for an entry perhaps. $25.31 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). $24.34 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
1st November 2005 – Closed at $26.59 This looks as if it will fall at the current high.
SLAB (24th Oct 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Using the light green box, Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $36.50 and $46.50 between Nov 2005 and early Feb 2006. Using the red box, Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $39.00 and $54 between mid Dec 2005 and late 2006. SLAB Juans likely projection is at $46. The 38.2% retracement has occurred very quickly. Using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move, would give $34.92. This will retrace again for another possible re-entry. This is extremely volatile and looks as if it will move up or down in one large move. 1st November 2005 -- $31.91.
XLNX (10th October 2005 – BEARISH Trade was alerted, but NO Elliotician projection target given by Juan.
1st November 2005 – Closed at $23.53. Possible entry for this one. It is now at the 38.2% retracement line from the previous large move down. As Juan has said it looks potentially favourable.
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