Wave "b" of "Y" is currently in progress and may as well be done. The chart suggest that the bottom of "b" is between $50 and $45. Today's activity with high volume and quick bounce from the bottom are possible psychologic indicators of a significant Elliott point (end of "b" wave)
Looking at the detail of wave "a" and "b" we see that wave "b" may still be in progress, although the minimal requirements for wave "b" are complete, the maximum possible retracement can reach $36. Not that this would likely happen, but the cautionary note must be made.
So we have to rely on other indicators to tell us when and if "b" wave is over. The volume spike is certainly a strong indicator, and the reversal from the lows has formed a "hammer" candlestick that is a possibly a reversal signal. A confirmation would come in the form of a higher opening and a higher close tomorrow.
The refined Elliott oscillator, or the Stochastics oscillator or the MACD may be used as buying signals in the days ahead.
Carefully looking at the stockcharts.com chart on AAPL we can not that the stock is holding above the 50dMA, and that the oscillators are oversold, possibly awaiting a buy signal. As long as it holds above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement I would be optimistic. The news from AAPL have been terrific.
The correction from $55 was a zigzag (a-b-c pattern) and that alone may have been sufficient retracement. However, I suspect that the a-b-c forma a larger A within a flat. B will possibly make a double top, and C will come back down to the high 40's.
Take the two scenarios as quite possible. For now, however, I think I'd be bullish, and just awaiting a buy signal. The Candlestick (a hammer) needs confirmation today with a higher opening and a higher closing.
DNA on the other hand, has been doing a double three which has also the W-X-Y format, and should close well above $100. Unlike AAPL, DNA may have completed wave "b" despite the dissapointing performance of the last 2 days.
More details shows that the oscillators have given buy signals. The trader would enter the position with an exit order if the stock falls below the bottom of the "b" wave currently labelled.
9 comments:
Hi, Juan. The charts aren't showing up on the comments today but the comments are clear. Thanks. I see you're not currently in AAPL and didn't realize you'd closed that position. Are you still in AMZN and is it still targeting for over 60? It's not been performing well at all. I'm still in long positions on AMZN, AAPL and CMI, FWIW. I also see you offered to email some software to us if we asked. If it can run on Macs, feel free to send it on to me. Thanks!
Juan,
I can also confirm that the charts are not currently showing. Which is a pity because you have done some thorough work there explaining AAPL and DNA projections on the Elliotician software.
Juan,
For AAPL, the low of $47.87 on the 12th October 2005, is the 38.2% retracement line from a low of $36.12 on the 29th June 2005 and a high of $55.35 on the 4th October 2005. However, if you use the low of $33.11 on the 11th May 2005, the retracement of 38.2% is at $46.83. So maybe another dollar to drop?
Again I am only commenting on what I am seeing here.
I thin that with AAPL, you can look at the long-term chart, let's say about 1 year or so, and then draw the Fibonacci retracements. You will see that AAPL is still holding at 32.8% of the rally that started back in May. It bounced strongly off the 50dMA, and the correction from 55 looks like a zigzag. A bounce back to 55 would be what I'd expect, but after that all we have to go by in the Elliott projections.
ALWAYS leave a stock that forms a double top. When and if AAPL travels to $55 weakly, then close the position. Take AMZN as an example. A double top is a clear signal of intermediate term weakness, maybe even long-term weakness.
I have been posting the charts in the ".MAC" disk. For some reason they are not coming. Please be patient with me, I will find a solution shortly.
JUan,
Elliottician is making a last call offer to private individual at $5000 for all the RET software and courses. Deadline is tommorrow. I am seriously thinking of getting it. With your experience with Elliot wave and RET, do you think it is a bargain ? Pls. let me have your opinion. Thanks.
HK...
I like it a lot because it gives me possible options at to what the right count could be. BUT I have been an elliottician for 10 years now, and experience does not come quick.
I will certainly recommended if you have a lot of experience, or at least the commitment to learn elliott wave analysis. If you do, Elliottician is the right approach. The price tag is rather high. Send me an e-mail (PaperProfit1@mac.com) and I will direct you to one guy that may help you with that. I would be getting the RET software alone if I could, but they will give you the Elliottician Certification Course. Other items are not essential, however. I don't think that real time elliott analysis is that effective. It works very well for long-term predictions. I use IQ charts for intraday decisions.
Juan, As you you have postulated, DNA has recovered. What will be your signal on the entry on this one? I am currently in and have to admit I timed this one wrongly, that is why I ask you for your view.
Keep up the good work.
Tomorrow I shall review what I think the projections in price might me for the trades using Fibonacci from my perspective.
Juan: Some of your windows overwrite others here and I cannot see the numbers at the top part of the AAPL elliot wave chart, so I can't really see those targets. But given the strength yesterday we seem to have a clear buy signal and perhaps that gives us a higher target. There might be resistance around 55 where we hit a temporary top recently at 55.35 or so, yes? But then would you say 65 is a possible reasonable goal? Or 60?
And on AMZN would it still have 60 possible or is it finished since it's been down for a while now?
accoutholder:
I have placed instructions on how to best view the articles so that the charts are exposed. Look at the top of the most recent article.
Juan
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