In the path to success, there are lessons to be learned that we will not ignore because they will serve us well. Here is what I have to admit as errors in my part:
1. After warning about looking a earnings, I got too busy and did not check them myself. I would have found out that AMLN was about to report, and at the very least I would have taken some profits.
2. I did entered AMLN even after I recognized a double top days ago. I was in part influence by a comment made in "mad money" about AMLN going into the 100's — AMLN has not yet have positive earnings, which would throw such unrealistic expectations to the trash. Today, AMLN may trigger my system to the downside, with a target of 27. I will post a RET chart later today.
The lessons: Be cautious during earnings, and ignore analysts!
We will recover from this and do well in the days ahead.
I also took my profits on RHAT as a double top has formed near $22. I would consider reentry at about $19.5-$20.
I also exited GDT, at least for the time being, as it looks oversold, sort term. After a bounce, I will consider reentry.
12 comments:
I have entered this one too.
SLAB also looks promising, as it has moved up in the right direction.
I have entered SLAB in a separate account, JFYI
So the talking point is AMZN;
In my previous posting, “AMZN a projection of $50.12, using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move.”
Look back a year and there was the same drop, but then a rise back up (A warning sign of predictability). I have created a Fibonacci retracement from the low of the drop in October 2004, to the high at the end of December 2004. I then moved that retracement move to the low of today. IF, and I repeat IF, we get the same move up that gives a target of $52 at the end of December 2005. A lot of Ifs, but it is going to be interesting. The mistake now would be for me to add further to these positions on AMZN.
Important now to concentrate on other trades.
DNA has broken upwards from a small wedge pattern. This has been an explosive move. It has broken through the points, $87.35 and $87.60. I previously said that if it broke those I could see it return back up to $94-$95. +DI(14) has just broken above –DI(14).
GGC is still looking good, just have to bide our time on this one.
AAPL, projection of $60, using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. I still think that is possible.
BP This is retracing from the 61.8% from a previous move. Projections of $67 and $69.21 using fibonacci.
PETM, which I am still in. There is a doji and the previous high has not been achieved, I am wondering whether Juans previous projection is still holding on this one. Time decay has worked in my favour.
RHAT Resistances of $22.05 has been broken. There is one at $22.42, with a fibonacci projection of $24.20 using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. Again this is possible.
GDT, a previous low of $60 made during a days trading is a possible target. It still wants to go down. Juans projection using Elliotician of between $60 and $48 looks on track. I haven’t entered this one, so far.
SLAB Juans likely projection is at $46. The 38.2% retracement has occurred very quickly. I think it is time to enter this one, as Juan has done today (Wed 26th Oct 2005). Using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move, would give $34.92
NFLX, the ADX has turned on this one, with -DI(14) going above +DI(14). This confirms Juans recent observations. The move today (Wed 26th Oct 2005), was favourable. A 161% Fibonacci projection of $20.68 perhaps. Juans projection is between $14.5 and $20.75
SGR Currently up to $26.51. I am not in the trade unfortunately, but I have a projection of $28.42 using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. Watching for a retracement before the target before entering. Juans previous projection was $30.50 to $40.05 short term and $30.50 and $52 long term. One to watch for an entry perhaps. $25.31 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). $24.34 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
FDX Projection of $91.80 using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move, has been achieved today. Now there appears to be either a pause or a retracement for another possible entry position. Another one to watch for re-entry. Retracement projection target of $90.64 and $89.64.
I have even less experience than Juan, so please remember that when reading my 'ramblings' **Smiles**
Juan,
When you entered a trade in another account, did you always use a PCCRC in that account?
I keep 2 other accounts. I have PCRCC, CRC's, PRC's and double butterflies in those accounts. I have written PDF's for each of these strategies and I use stringent conditions for each.
For PCRCC I only use high fliers with low volatility. The rest has been discussed in detail.
Juan,
You mentioned seeing double tops in AMLN two days ago. I can't see it on the daily chart. Are you using a different timeframe ?
Keep your good work. I continue learn from this experience.
Another e.g. is IRF where earning is expected to be reported today. Lets see what happens tommorow.
Thanks Varun, I sure will. There will be bumps in the road, but we will do great, if we stick to the plan!
BTW, today's candidates are GR and DRIV.
I am looking at older candidates like
PETM and BBY, possibly PALM.
TXN was triggered on Friday, but it did not work out for me.
I will post any trade I enter. ONLY GDT adn NFLX in my Challenge account currently.
AMLN formed a double top on the 17th, then bulled back and made a tripple top yesterday.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=AMLN,uu[w,a]daclyyay[db][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
To be honest it is a couple of bad days. I have lost ground again today. There is tomorrow to look forward too. I shall seek a reappraisal again at the weekend.
Entered SLAB today.
AMZN: There is another Fibonacci 50% retracement line. Using the low at the end of April 2005 and the two peaks, it is at $38.88.
AMZN share price has bounced off that today at 10:45am at the $38.86 price. At 2:31pm, it bounced again at $38.98.
Fortitude:
I am a big fan of your ramblings...... Excellent ramblings I may say.
I too have kept my AMZN on. But bought back my sold part. Wait for it to go up.
PETM made a good move today down.
Overall the market is very bearish. Overall volatility is starting to go up. This time an attempt at 10000 might be broken. Lets see what happens.
RHAT touched and bounced off of the 50 DMA twice...Appears to be forming a consolation triangle between 26 and 29, should burst through the upper part of the triangle on this upward move...If so, we will see the 35/36 area, for sure!!!
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