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Tuesday, November 08, 2005

PCCRC on AOC. HK's suggestion.

How to view the entire chart:


1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.


I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.


I Hope this helps,


Juan

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AOC looks like an excellent choice. It is at a 52 week high and it has moved from the high teens to mid 30's this year. I think that you have to be a little more patient, however, before you pull the trigger. IV is still declining, we want to wait until it has bottomed. Looking at the 2 yr IV chart. we can see that AOC's IV has been in the low 20's before, we are almost there.



The very important IV/SV ratio is below 1, which is good, but I want to see it turning around just a bit, before entering the trade. I think that the stock is entering a short-term triangle, which may result in further reduction in IV, at which time we will enter the trade. Just one or two days more.




I have looked at your trade, and I think that this may be better. This is why: You used november shorts, and there are only 10 days left to expiration. I will be rolling over my shorts this friday to December, so it does not make much sense to short novembers here.
If you were to short december, it would make little sense to go long on January options. This is why we need to go to April. We need to give ourselves enough time for a spike to occur. You can always reduce the number of longs to match your budget for this trade.



HK: Please keep me posted as to the IV and SV charts on AOC, I will enter a trade on this and show you how I'd do it.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your posting on AOC. I will keep you posted on the IV & SV of AOC.

Applying the same idea to APPL, would you roll over the Nov legs to Dec and the Jan. to Apr this friday or would you just close the trade and wait for the next opportunity to enter as its IV is rather high at the moment?

Juan Sarmiento said...

You must mean AAPL.

My plan on AAPL is to keep the January options as long as I can, the reason being that Apple reports in Jan, along with MacWorld that always has product introductions. Both factors tend to increase implied volatility and hence the value of the options. So I intend to roll the November shorts to December. If there is a volatility spike above 60, I might exit the whole trade.

Chances are I'll be out of the trade by Dec. expiration.

Anonymous said...

Juan,

RIMM looks an excellent trade to be honest. There is a 50% retracement, within a three wave correction. Could go down today and further over the next few days.

Juan Sarmiento said...

I am keeping an eye on RIMM. I will study it today, along with PIXR. I still am looking at NTES and QDEL for an entry point.

EWI