1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.
I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.
I Hope this helps,
Juan
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With today's strong move down, DRIV showed us that the trend is still down. Chatting with Fortitude over the weekend, he raised the question of the oversold conditions in the oscillators. take a look at this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=DRIV,uu[w,a]daclyyay[db][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
My reply to him is probably useful for everyone shorting stocks, or holding puts (or PRC's for that matter).
Look how much bearish the chart is when you focus on the Bollinger bands.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=DRIV,uu[w,a]daclyyay[db][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUya7,14,28!Li14,3]&pref=G
So yes, I am still bearish, but bear positions have a way to snap back unpredictably, so it is OK to takes profits. This is my approach: Buy back the november calls (7 in total) and sell 9 december calls at the same strike price. Here is the result:
I have also updated my contingency order. Here is today's transformations.
Finally, a comment to those following the challenge:
It IS frustrating to me to have been near $16K, in the account only to see it go back to $12K. This is very much what it is like to trade, so you are seeing what it is really like. No get rich scheme, but a lot of learning in the process. every system has its limitations, and risks. Perseverance it part of the process, so I will press on, and see where do we end up. For as long as we have not reach our goal of doubling the account I will continue and see how long it takes us.
This is, at the very least, an excuse to deal with Technical analysis and options trading. Please feel free to offer suggestions if you think I am doing something you would not do.
3 comments:
Juan,
RE: “Please feel free to offer suggestions if you think I am doing something you would not do.”
I would not put so many eggs in the same basket. **Smiles** You are prepared to risk about 20% of your account on a single trade, I am just risking 5% of my account on a single trade. You can probably sleep well doing this, I couldn’t. **Smiles**
At one point I had ten trades on, then AMZN, which did not unsettle me at the time (Wednesday), but by Friday when the market kept falling, I exited positions at a profit to see them go up the next Monday. And I am prepared to concede that AMZN eventually ‘unsettled’ me as the market seemed to turn ‘bearish’ and I too felt the ‘panic’
You have spotted many exiting trades which would have made money, there have been a few ‘duff’ ones, but we are talking about ‘averages’, so in the long run the profits of those that are right wipe out those that are wrong. Over the last couple of weeks FDX, DNA, GGC, AAPL, have all been ‘called’ by you, which you got right and neither you or have been in them. That has been the interesting psychological question.
If you are going to risk the whole account on the market at one time, why not just place 10% of your capital in a trade and have ten trades on the go. In that way, I feel you would have traded FDX, DNA, GGC and AAPL in the last few weeks. Just a thought/opinion, which I feel obliged to make, since you asked. **Smiles**
RE: “Perseverance it part of the process, so I will press on, and see where do we end up. For as long as we have not reach our goal of doubling the account I will continue and see how long it takes us.”
…and when you have doubled the account, the next objective will be to double the account again to $44,000 in a faster time and then when it has reached $88,000, faster still. **Smiles**
I can’t speak for the others, but I don’t want you to stop, just keep it going and going. Eventually there will be more contributors, more ideas and opinions and it will get better.
**Correction**
"You have spotted many exciting trades which would have made money..."
5% vs. 20%. Your point is well taken. It is true that my trades have been large within the 11K account. Upon reflexion, this has been because I DO have other accounts to take care of, and so managing another 10-20 trades at a time is hard. Since the purpose of the challenge was to illustrate how could someone with $11K could create wealth, it follows that this someone would not make $2.5K trades at a time. BUT I don't think that 20 trades is manageable. Let us reduce our single trade capital to $1K and see if we limit our losses from bad trades. I will use group trading so that the 11K account reflects my other accounts, hence I can manage 10 trades or more. This is more work for me, of course, but I am willing to do it.
Avoid earnings. I truly believe that earnings are too much of a wild card. Going through earnings is too risky. We should endeavor to avoid earnings and exit our trades before they occur. IF there is a strong movement after earnings, and that action triggers my system, I can always enter a new trade.
Keep RET in mind. It DOES take time to analyze stocks with RET, but it has proven worthwhile to see if the analysis matches my expectations. It further helps remove the sense of urgency that comes from seeing a stock moves dramatically in one single day.
Make spreads longer term. The QCOM trade seems to be a better trade because it is slightly out of the money and it is set up to 2007. However, bearish trades seem to work out better as short-term trades, no more than 3 months out.
Correcting course is essential to success. So here we go!
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