I have been exited out of ADSK. I am considering exiting PETM and RIMM and the stocks do not seem to be going my way.
Since I have some cash, I will enter SYK and PLAY as bullish trades. These stocks had triggered my system earlier and I have been monitoring them without cash to trade them with. I will post an update later today.
----------
Finally, it seems, it is a good time to enter bearish trades. Ironically, I exited my RIMM trade early in the morning. Yesterday I was triggered out of the ADSK trade. In the end I left SYK and PLAY for a better time. Days like today reminded me why we have to have bearish trades, if only to balance the bull trades.
I will keep you informed.
About Me
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
7 comments:
Juan: I pulled out of RIMM prematurely. I've have made some decent money if I'd stayed till today, instead of losing a bit. But the problem as I keep saying is that they are vulnerable to momentary changes based on their legal situation. They could drop seriously more, if no deal is worked out with the patent holders. Or, if the Patent authorities invalidate the other patents OR there's a deal with the patent holders that is announced, the stock will go through the roof. We could make money if we could figure out how to play such a scenario. There's big money to be made, but to be either short or long exposes oneself to the highest risk. News can come at any time and the stock's reaction will be very swift, faster than I can act. When I realized that, and the stock was going against me, I cut it loose. I should have waited and could have cut it loose now with a nice profit, of course. But the dependency on momentary news was scaring me. What do you think?
Juan: I pulled out of RIMM prematurely. I've have made some decent money if I'd stayed till today, instead of losing a bit. But the problem as I keep saying is that they are vulnerable to momentary changes based on their legal situation. They could drop seriously more, if no deal is worked out with the patent holders. Or, if the Patent authorities invalidate the other patents OR there's a deal with the patent holders that is announced, the stock will go through the roof. We could make money if we could figure out how to play such a scenario. There's big money to be made, but to be either short or long exposes oneself to the highest risk. News can come at any time and the stock's reaction will be very swift, faster than I can act. When I realized that, and the stock was going against me, I cut it loose. I should have waited and could have cut it loose now with a nice profit, of course. But the dependency on momentary news was scaring me. What do you think?
sorry for the duplicate post. The system wasn't responding. I don't know if it's because of adding that word verification or some other problem.
Anyway, please remove the duplicate. I was trying to say that the stock is a crapshoot now from a fundamental point of view, probably it's negative long term because they lost customers because of this, but there will be a big pop up if the case is settled or the other patents are invalidated. So it's high risk, even though I do think it's going down longer term and could also drop precipitously with more bad news.
Well, we just add litigation to our list of no trades.
I got out of my position prematurely. Now I am sorry about that. Oh, well... we move on!
Today the market is pulling down almost everything, so I guess it wasn't a great time to cover a short position. But overall, the stock is absolutely too vulnerable. If we had a way to position ourselves so that if the stock moves a lot in either direection, that would be the play for RIMM. Is there such an option position? Would some sort of straddle do it?
Forget it Accountholder, this is exactly the wrong stock for PCCRC or Straddle. The IV is up in the 60's which means you will be paying too much for the straddle. Then volatility will plummet with a news comes that resolves the issue.
I guess that is exactly what most traders would be thinking, then they suffer in the house of pain due to the volatility crush.
Just forget it, move on, find other candidates.
Well not all law suits are that serious but this one could have ruined the company. Now I guess we both feel better about covering this. Sure, it could work out in the long run but I'd have had too many heart attacks before then!
Post a Comment