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I am showing you here how to evaluate a candidate, in this case CEPH, enter the trade and how to modify it when there is a volatility skew, like in AOC's case
http://www.pathometrix.com/Movies/PCCRC4.mov
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4 comments:
Juan,
AMZN, trading on predictability. Looking at the chart for the last two years AMZN has fallen end of January, both in 2003 ($10 approx.) and 2004 ($6 approx.)
What do you reckon?
Juan
Congrats for CEPH. Another patent settlement for provigil. shares rise 4++
I collected $2000 on CEPH today, yet kept the bullish bias on the trade.
Cramer said to cash out of AMZN (ring the register as he says). I would look for better opportunities, since AMZN looks high now.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=AMZN,uu%5Bw,a%5Dwaclyyay%5Bdf%5D%5Bpb10!b40!f%5D%5Bvc60%5D%5BiUl14!Lp14,3,3%5D&pref=G
Juan,
Is CELG now ripe for a PCCRC entry ? IV/SV below 1; >90days IV of 41% at lowest percentile bin. It would be nice to wait for the IV to drop below 40 but the probability could be low.
Below is a possible trade in Platinum. I use the Feb options for the short legs 'cos the Jan IV is too low or would it still be better to short the Jan. instead ?
http://platinum.optionetics.com/cgi-bin/platinumv30/op4email.php?trade_name=0601|CELG|Feb06-Apr06|65|Call|Put&trade_date=2005-12-30&sym=LQH&num_legs=4&tra0=-5:B06:65.000:3.5:CELG:2005-12-30:36.27199936:FFFFFF:0:0&tra1=-5:N06:65.000:3.700:CELG:2005-12-30:39.78699875:FFFFFF:0:0&tra2=10:D06:65.000:6:CELG:2005-12-30:40.11500168:FFFFFF:0:0&tra3=10:P06:65.000:5.800:CELG:2005-12-30:42.55300140:FFFFFF:0:0
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