Those of you who want to see an index of my video clips, go to this address, from there you can view any of them. They are up to date too:
http://www.pathometrix.com/Movies/
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Here is a detailed view the RET analysis on AAPL. Some of you recall that I have done an a analysis a few weeks ago. You can look at that clip too.
There are two possible interpretations in the long term analysis:
1) A Double 3 (D3), starting in 1997 when Steve Jobs regained control of AAPL, and became CEO. The iPod rally (starting in 2003) is wave Y of that D3, and this Y is a ZigZag (ZZ) now in its latter stages. From that view, AAPL should rally to $80 or $90/share and then correct significantly, as the D3 pattern comes to an end.
2) An impulse series (I5). Under this theory, AAPL would be in an intermediate term wave 3 within a longer term wave 3. The intermediate term wave 3 would be coming to an end also in the $80-$90 range, but if this is correct, AAPL should go sideways for a few months (not correct aggressively, as woud be expected with the first scenario above.
In either case, the short-term forecast is bullish. What happens after the target ($80-$90) is reached will determine the long-term count.
First, take a look that the previously published video clip
http://www.pathometrix.com/Movies/AAPL3.mov
Then look at the new video clip, published today, Jan 9, 2006
http://www.pathometrix.com/Movies/AAPL4.mov
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14 comments:
Juan,
Thanks for your response. We shall call it PCCRC. ****smiles******
Personally I would like to thank on the amazing job you had done not only devloping the system but also sharing the information with us.
I extremely grateful for all you have done.
Just reading back the comments realized my comments were a bit negative. I was under the weather (viral flu). My appologies.
**smiles***
I will back test the trades without adjustment and see how it comes out.
Thanks once again for you help
Fortitude,
I owe you some stuff. Appologies for my delay
Shall get it done over the weekend.
My S&P Forcast
Still bullish:
1293-1305 likely range in short term and in next few months bullish
Counts get invalidated for bullish if it falls below 1246.
jfVarum said: Just reading back the comments realized my comments were a bit negative. I was under the weather (viral flu). My appologies.
Not at all Varum, please do NOT feel in anyway limited by what you can say here. I go by the assumption that we are all here to learn. You imput is always welcome.
Juan,
I haven't done the double zig zag component of the Elliottician Course yet, but AAPL as you say looks as if it could run out of steam soon. **Smiles**
Varun,
I am only on module 4 of the course, so don't worry too much about your 'homework'. **Smiles**
HK,
Any more CELGs out there please? **Smiles**
Fortitude,
Haven't found any good PCCRC today.
the problem of finding goog candidates for PCCRC's is not a simple one. It takes a lot of homework.
What I do is I have a folder in platinum where I keep some paper trades on stocks that I like but that are too high for CRC's, like AAPL. I have made good money on AAPL in the last 12 months with this strategy of waiting for the right moment.
Look at the list of high fliers and then see what strikes you as a winner, then make the paper trade in Platinum, and wait for the right moment to enter. If nothing else, with this list of paper trades, you will learn what works and what doesn't.
Found NTAP as a PCCRC trade today.
Buy 2 Jun 32.5 P/C and sell 1 Feb 32.5 P/C at 8.45 nett. The IV/SV just pop above 1 today. There is a large IV skew to our favour. I am not too sure whether it is better to sell the Jan straddle instead as its premium with only 1 week to expire is 50% of the Feb.
HK, why don't you post the trade?
If you have platinum, go to the site map and select e-mail trades. Send it to yourself and post the e-mail here for us to check it out!!
Thanks for your effort there.
Here is the trade in platinum:
http://platinum.optionetics.com/cgi-bin/platinumv30/op4email.php?trade_name=NTAP|Feb06-Jun06|325|Call|Put|12|jan&trade_date=2006-01-12&sym=NJQ&num_legs=4&tra0=-5:B06:32.500:2.200:NTAP:2006-01-12:50.24200058:FFFFFF:0:0&tra1=-5:N06:32.500:1.75:NTAP:2006-01-12:46.56499863:FFFFFF:0:0&tra2=10:F06:32.500:3.900:NTAP:2006-01-12:42.00600052:FFFFFF:0:0&tra3=10:R06:32.500:2.300:NTAP:2006-01-12:31.37299919:FFFFFF:0:0
yes, HK, that looks good.
NTAP reports in Feb, before these options expire. To me that implies that the Feb option IV will be on the rise. The next reporting month after that would be May. Ideally, May options would appreciate too, unfortunately, they are not available.
NTAP Feb options will collapse in price just after earnings, at which time one could rollover to March.
Jim Cramer mentioned NTAP under a buy out talk. If that is to happen, you exit as soon as you learn the news. Such events cause the IV to collapse, affecting long-term as well as short term options.
I think this could be an excellent case to follow.
BRCM is also showing a favorable vol. skew. Take a look at it.
HK, take a look at BRCM and QCOM as well. I am entering both as PCCRC's today.
RE: "Juan Sarmiento said...
HK, take a look at BRCM and QCOM as well. I am entering both as PCCRC's today."
Just seen the info after the market has closed. Boo Hoo. **Smiles**
Juan please give us the low down in your next home movie. Thanks again.
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