AAPL Elliott wave update

How to view the entire chart:


1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.


I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.


I Hope this helps,


Juan

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This is the long term count on AAPL.

My Favorite count on AAPL, starting at the lows of Jan 1998 is a double three. In practical terms, this is a series of 3 waves with 3 waves components. In other words, a series labelled XYZ. These X, Y and Z waves are composed of ABC patterns. Currently, AAPL is in the third wave of this series, wave Y, and it should conclude soon



The main feature of a D3 is that wave X approaches, but does not exceed the begining of the pattern. As you can see, in 2003, AAPL approached the bottom of 1998, before bouncing up. Only the FLAT pattern is similar. The Flat pattern is an ABC pattern, and "C" would be an impulse (1-2-3-4-5 series). So far, there is some evidence that the current rally is impulsive (see below).

I am now selecting the portion of the chart above starting at the bottom of 2003, the end of wave X. That portion is wave Y, currently in progress. See below the continuation of the analysis in more detail.




The alternative count of a high rating is an impulse series. This would be a much more aggressive sequence. However, if this series was to complete as such, our long-term sequence would have to be revised from a double 3 to a flat. Specifically, it would have to be an elongated flat, with a wave C which far exceeds the length of other waves in that flat. We will keep that in mind as the current bullish trend on AAPL unravels.

The chart below illustrates the suggested Impulse series. Note that the most likely target has not yet been exceeded, but it IS at its high end. This target would be a wave III.If wave III materializes as such, wave IV should follow. Wave V, a rally, should follow thereafter. Therefore, for long-term holders of this stock becomes critical whether there will be or not a 5th wave, because it would be wise to exit positions at the end of the current rally.

In either case, Wave III or Wave C should be an impulse series, I follow in the last chart below.

Take a look at the alternative intermediate term chart. FInally, the last chart will be updated regularly as we find the end to either suggested series.

Update 01/17/2006






Update 01/24/2006
The impulse series that began in June 2005 seem to have concluded now. Whether it is wave C of a zigzag (A-B-C), or wave 3 of an impulse (1-2-3-4-5) it is now concluded. The question becomes, ¿What is next for AAPL? If the serie that began in Oct. 2002 was a zigzag, it is now concluded and a strong correction should follow. If it is an impulse, it is still in progress, and wave 4 will follow for the next few months, eventually leading into a final wave 5. In either case, my PCCRC should be profitable.
The only bullish alternative left would be wave C of Y of a double zigzag, but I do not see that in any of the alternative counts.

By the way, the label 'a' in the chart below is innappropriate becuase waves a and b have already occurred. The appropriate label would be 'c'. The reason it is labeled this way is because I selected the proposed 'c' wave for analysis separately, to see if the proposed impulse had been completed. As you can see the IM labeling is now completed with wave '5'.

The target betwen $75 and $60 may be underestimating the correction. We will see.