Those of you who want to see an index of my video clips, go to this address, from there you can view any of them. They are up to date too:
http://www.pathometrix.com/Movies/
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Here is a detailed view the RET analysis on the S&P500. You can look at that clip too.
http://www.pathometrix.com/Movies/SPX.mov
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6 comments:
Juan,
Thanks for the video for this friday evening here in the UK.
Correct me if I am wrong, we are either in a long term ABC wave, or in a long term corrective WXY wave,
You have said that this rally up won't go up as far as the previous rally that was seen, late 1990s and early 2000s if we are in an WXY wave.
However, it is an ABC wave then there will be a rally up much higher.
Presently comparing the statistical projections, Elliottician predicts an ABC to be more likely.
I am converasant with the impulsive 1,2,3,4,5 and corrective zig zags, flats and triangles and the superimposed counts within different time frames. What intrigues me though, is the uncertainty on the long term wave counts. All the time there is a probability
I reckon caution should followed and it 'may be' an XWY corrective.
That is my take on the situation. **Smiles**
I have the short range is bullish 3rd impulse wave and the long term as Impulse wave.
Expecting the market to hit 1320-1406 by next few weeks. In the very near term I expect the market to hit 1296 by Wednesday (Probably Tuesday)
Varum, when you do you analysis, do you select "any pattern" or impulse series?
With every impulse series, make sure that this basic Elliott wave rules are met:
1. Wave 3 is usually the largest, but may not be the shortest.
2. Wave 4 never overlaps wave 1.
3. Every wave in an impulse series is formed by impulse waves.
Over the years, I have come to believe that double zigzags are more common than impulse series as part of strong rallies. This is important because you may be left waiting for a fifth wave that does not materialize. For example, when the great bull market of the late 90's came to an end, I thought it was a 4th wave, until it was too late. Although I new the end was near, so that I sold most of my stock positions, I lost some money in bullish options (hence my interest in PCCRC's). When AAPL went from 60 to 28 in just a few days, I thoght a 5th wave was in progress. Retrospectively, the rally from 1997 to 1999 was a double zig zag. Take a look at that as an example.
Trade number: 1
Trade name: I BRCM
TRADE LINK:
I BRCM
Trade browser URL:
http://platinum.optionetics.com/cgi-bin/platinumv30/op4email.php?trade_name=I|BRCM™_date=2006-01-11&sym=RCQ&num_legs=4&tra0=-15:B06:55.000:4.300:BRCM:2006-01-11:24.59600067:FFFFFF:0:0&tra1=-15:N06:55.000:2.050:BRCM:2006-01-11:50.71599960:FFFFFF:0:0&tra2=30:E06:55.000:6.300:BRCM:2006-01-11:27.80100060:FFFFFF:0:0&tra3=30:Q06:55.000:4.050:BRCM:2006-01-11:44.96300125:FFFFFF:0:0
-----------------------------------
Trade number: 2
Trade name: SEP IGT
TRADE LINK:
SEP IGT
Trade browser URL:
http://platinum.optionetics.com/cgi-bin/platinumv30/op4email.php?trade_name=SEP|IGT™_date=2005-11-15&sym=IGT&num_legs=4&tra0=-5:A06:30.000:0.450:IGT:2005-11-15:24.37899971:FFFFFF:0:0&tra1=-5:N06:30.000:0.650:IGT:2005-12-29:25.69199944:FFFFFF:0:0&tra2=10:D06:30.000:1.150:IGT:2005-11-15:25.09799957:FFFFFF:0:0&tra3=10:P06:30.000:1.150:IGT:2005-12-29:26.14100075:FFFFFF:0:0
------------------------------! -----
Trade number: 3
Trade name: X QCOM
TRADE! LINK:
X QCOM
Trade browser URL:
http://platinum.optionetics.com/cgi-bin/platinumv30/op4email.php?trade_name=X|QCOM™_date=2006-01-04&sym=QAQ&num_legs=4&tra0=-10:B06:47.500:1.100:QCOM:2006-01-04:29.28100014:FFFFFF:0:0&tra1=-10:N06:47.500:1.650:QCOM:2006-01-13:35.19800186:FFFFFF:0:0&tra2=20:G06:47.500:3.25:QCOM:2006-01-04:27.81500053:FFFFFF:0:0&tra3=20:S06:47.500:3.150:QCOM:2006-01-13:28.78599930:FFFFFF:0:0
Fortitude: the trades above are the trades I have on BRCM, QCOM and IGT.
The QCOM is a transformation from a CRC that I entered some days ago.
the IGT is what we have modified in the Challenge account.
The BRCM was entered yesterday.
It is important that you evaluate these in light of the earnings report coming up, I will discuss IGT and DNA in my next clip.
Juan,
I forgot to publish my comments yesterday after writing.
Take a look at the SPY
http://optforoptions.blogspot.com/2006/01/sp500-forcast.html
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