1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.
I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.
I Hope this helps,
Juan
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I have entered this position on IDCC. The stock has jumped today on excellent news. The have agreed to license technology that covers the sale of second-generation and third-generation wireless technology on the time division multiple access standard. LG is obligated to pay InterDigital three equal installments of $95 million, in the first quarters of 2006, 2007, and 2008.
This is a sunstantial increase in its regular revenues of 165 to 210 M/year. Although the company has not provided earnings guidance yet, one would expect a substantial increase.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=IDCC
A complete Elliott analysis on IDCC was posted today:
http://www.pathometrix.com/Frames.html
11 comments:
Juan,
Thanks for that.
I got in at the same price at 12:30.
Still in DELL, URBN and in HSY
hi Juan,
i had 1 a similiar trade on the CELG CRC, would like to know your view on adjusting a CRC before earnings?
this case is rather unique as the front mth IV did not spike and hence i couldn't convert it to a PCCRC as recommended by HK as indicated in your prev post.
calvin
Hard to tell what to do without knowing what your position is, why don't you post it here so you get everyone's opinion too. Here are some rules of thumb:
1. Transform into PCCRC. This would have to be some time before earnings IF the short term puts have higher IV than long term puts. You would simple ADD a PRC to your CRC.
2. SELL some front month calls. This assumes that your front month calls have high IV and you expect a small decline in the stock after earnings.
3. SELL some back month calls. This assumes that you expect continued rally after earnings. You reduce the risk, but would make less money if the stock jumps.
I would just leave the trade on the day of earnings and then shamelessly reenter when you see the numbers. This can be painfull, if you think that you could have stayed on the trade. The reality is that stock movements post-earnings are totally unpredictable.
Hi Y'all
make sure you check the update on AAPL in my other web site
http://www.pathometrix.com/Frames.html
This will help you see how to handle a stock that is know to have an increase in volatility before earnings and decline thereafter.
Here is the trade in Platinum.
http://platinum.optionetics.com/cgi-bin/platinumv30/op4email.php?trade_name=X|AAPL™_date=2005-12-27&sym=AAQ&num_legs=10&tra0=5:A06:75.000:5.5:AAPL:2006-01-19:0.00000000:FFFF99:0:0&tra1=-5:A06:75.000:3.100:AAPL:2005-12-27:44.38399887:FFFF99:0:0&tra2=5:M06:75.000:0.05:AAPL:2006-01-19:78.22499847:FFFF99:0:0&tra3=-5:M06:75.000:3.300:AAPL:2006-01-04:53.52299881:FFFF99:0:0&tra4=-5:B06:75.000:7.060:AAPL:2006-01-19:38.85400009:E8E8E8:0:0&tra5=-5:N06:75.000:1.350:AAPL:2006-01-19:40.33000183:E8E8E8:0:0&tra6=10:D06:75.000:7:AAPL:2005-12-27:41.80500031:CCFFCC:0:0&tra7=-10:D06:75.000:11.260:AAPL:2006-01-10:45.97700119:CCFFCC:0:0&tra8=10:P06:75.000:6.850:AAPL:2006-01-04:44.95299911:66CCFF:0:0&tra9=12:D06:80.000:8.380:AAPL:2006-01-10:44.70899963:99FF66:0:0
Note that I like to do PCCRC's on AAPL buying expiration months. Next earnings is on mid April.
how do i copy the url of my trade like what u did?
hi, this is my CELG trade,
appreciate your comments.
rgds,
calvin
http://platinum.optionetics.com/cgi-bin/platinumv30/op4email.php?trade_name=CELG|Feb-Jul|70|CRC™_date=2005-12-29&sym=LQH&num_legs=4&tra0=-1:B06:70.000:1.5:CELG:2005-12-29:33.91799927:FF66CC:0:0&tra1=2:G06:70.000:6.050:CELG:2005-12-29:39.06000137:99FF66:0:0&tra2=-1:G06:70.000:11:CELG:2006-01-09:45.64599991:FFCCFF:0:0! &tra3=1:G06:75.000:8.5:CELG:2006-01-09:44.19200134:CCFFCC:0:0
Instructions on posting a trade's URL from Platinum
1. Go to the Site map and locate e-mail mail in the second column, top box.
2. e-mail the trade to your self.
3. Make sure that the trade was copied properly by posting the URL in your own browser. Occasionally, exclamation points are inserted in the url, make sure that you erase those (!).
4. Post the address here.
Juan
The CELG is quite interesting. You have good profit (50%), but the stock is moving sideways. Suppose the news are bad, the stock will decline and your profits could vanish. My phylosophy is to never leave profits on the table, so exiting the trade would not be a bad idea. I know it would be tempting to stay in the trade because you have seen bigger pforits before, but earnings are indeed a wild card.
I recently left a SLAB trade, and today the stock is jumping. I have no regrets, I reconsider reentry at a higher price. It is just the way it is. In the long run you'd lose less money this way. Protecting your cash is the first order of business.
You could have sold a lesser number of front month calls at $75, but that would only transform your trade into a calendar (since you only have 2 long calls). Your profits may vanish just the same, if the stock moves strongly in either direction. Calendars are not good strategies for earnings.
So you are left with adding a put or a PRC to your position. BUT the IV is already high and declining. You could have entered those when the volatility was below 30. Even then, you have to chose the options right so you sell high IV and buy low IV.
At this point, I would exit the trade, and reenter after earnings if the news are good. Prepare to feel a little regret if it does, but accept that the risk at earnings may be too high. Give yourself permission to make mistakes, but not to leave profits on the table.
thks for your insight,
i had tested with adding a PRC and it's not quite good.
i think i'll exit and wait for IV to drop before re-entering again (if CELG continues to rise).
was rather surprised that the front mth's IV was lower than the back mth's even though it's approaching earnings, cos i've been waiting for it to happen so that i can convert it to a PCCRC.
thks and cheers
calvin
Juan,
SLAB currently up $9 on the day...
Another one that got away.
Juan,
Here is a possible PCCRC on Palm. Earning date 9 March. IV/SV < 1. Longer term IV at multi-year low. Is it time to enter the trade ?
http://platinum.optionetics.com/cgi-bin/platinumv30/op4email.php?trade_name=0601PALM|Feb06-May06|35|Call|Put&trade_date=2006-01-04&sym=UPY&num_legs=4&tra0=-5:B06:35.000:2.050:PALM:2006-01-25:41.90800095:FFFFFF:0:0&tra1=-4:N06:35.000:1:PALM:2006-01-25:40.96500015:FFFFFF:0:0&tra2=10:E06:35.000:4.200:PALM:2006-01-25:44.32899857:FFFFFF:0:0&tra3=10:Q06:35.000:2.800:PALM:2006-01-25:43.71900177:FFFFFF:0:0
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