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Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Watch Implied Volatility when rolling over

How to view the entire chart:


1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.


I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.


I Hope this helps,


Juan

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I have rolled the IDCC short to March. I think that it still looks good. Here is what I wrote about it when I entered the trade:

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I have entered this position on IDCC. The stock has jumped today on excellent news. The have agreed to license technology that covers the sale of second-generation and third-generation wireless technology on the time division multiple access standard. LG is obligated to pay InterDigital three equal installments of $95 million, in the first quarters of 2006, 2007, and 2008.

This is a sunstantial increase in its regular revenues of 165 to 210 M/year. Although the company has not provided earnings guidance yet, one would expect a substantial increase.


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=IDCC


A complete Elliott analysis on IDCC was posted today:

http://www.pathometrix.com/Frames.html
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Early in the week, I transformed my IGT trade into a PCCRC. To view a summary of the activities in my account, here is the order status. Note that I have also changes the contingency orders.



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The LRCX trade looks good. If there is no spike in volatility, Theta is working for us, as we approach FEB expiration. Think of it as a calendar spread for now. However, I will rollover to March, I am just waiting for the best time.



Critical to the rollover execution is the difference between the volatility of Feb vs. March options. The Chart below indicates that the March options are on the rise while the Feb options are on the decline (in volatility). We should be able to do the rolling over shortly.





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