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Wednesday, April 05, 2006

AAPL Elliott wave Forecast, Long and Short Term

How to view the entire chart:


1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.


I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.


I Hope this helps,


Juan

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IMPORTANT NOTE: For those of you who do not care to understand the Elliott wave, you may use the "likey" and "possible" targets at the base of each chart.

After the strong decline since January, AAPL's long term future were negative, however, the decline completed an Elliott pattern, indicating that the stock was going to bounce (you all remember my previous forecast calling for a bounce to $80 (or slightly higher). This is wave "B" of a corrective series, and it is countertrend (meaning, opposite to the corrective, down trend).


After two days of strong rally, the highest rating count backs up my favorite count of some days ago. Now that the counter trend is clearly underway, the most likely scenario is for AAPL to approach $80 (perhaps exceed it).



This bounce is the second portion of a corrective series. For those who know about Elliott waves, this would be a "B" wave, but "C" have is still to come and could take AAPL even lower than wave "A".

The long-term picture has also changed. My previous view that AAPL had reached a long-term top should be reformulated. A highly rated count suggest that indeed AAPL completed a zigzag in January (A-B-C series), but that the corrective period we are in, may be followed by another strong zigzag up. Although it is still a little early, the opportunity to sell near $80 to reload when the corrective series is complete, seems quite attractive.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interactive Brokers Webinars.

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/education/priorWebinars.php?ib_entity=llc

Thanks for Lee on sharing the trade, and Fortitude on IB liquidiation tip.

Juan,
I did some read up on Pivot after you started this topic. I see that mostly currency traders are using it successfully.
http://www.mgexchange.com/Teasers/Pivots/Pivot%20Points.html

Anonymous said...

Varun,

RE: "Thanks... ...Fortitude on IB liquidiation tip

That is OK, glad to help.

Lee,

RE: "on sharing the trade"

Thanks, I will reply shortly.

Juan Sarmiento said...

Varum:

I don't see why you could not use this to avoid entering a trade too soon. I will give more details of my ideas later.

Juan

EWI