1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.
I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.
I Hope this helps,
Juan
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This is a continuation of the LRCX trade. You will notice that the stock has been rallying strongly today. This is another case where the PCCRC can win the day as Delta helps us gain the value of our trade after the collapse in volatility after earnings. Yet Volatility is begining to increase too. If the rally continues, we could realize some gains by simply rolling over our long calls to a higher (and cheaper) strike price. In the next few days we shall see.
Here is the trade as it currently stands in my portfolio:
In view of the current spike in price, am I bullish in the stock? Here is the long term Elliott wave analysis indicating that we are in an impulsive wave C part of a zigzag that may be coming to an end:
A detailed look at that wave C, and we can see that wave 5 may be underway. That means that we may be very close to reaching the top, at the end of which a correction will begin. We should be able to profit eiher way, with some timely manipulations, but if the 5th wave extends, our profits will be made by Delta.
Take a look at previous posts onn LRCX:
http://stockoftheday.blogspot.com/2006/04/lrcx-earnings-iv-spike-continued.html
http://stockoftheday.blogspot.com/2006/04/lrcx-earnings-iv-spike.html
5 comments:
Both on DNA and LRCX you have the edge on me. Both of these trades you will break even, I have not. The reason being, is that you currently understand the 'nuances' more, where to make adjustments. The LRCX rollover was a prime example, because if I had waited one trading day I would have got an extra $0.50. The reason being that I bought back the expensive expiring front month options and sold the less expensive next front month options. That is what I learned the hard way. **Smiles** A few other basic errors too.
Good experience though.
Fortitude, just in case I did not make myself clear, I don't want you to feel that I am saying you shoulda, coulda or woulda. That was not the point of the exercise, far from it. My purpose is to show you that out of 3 trades, you could make money in one and breakeven on 2 and be OK, even if things did not go your way. Everyone of us have their own way, and you certainly did your best, at times following my guidance to the letter. Only experience will allow you to see things that you did not see this time.
The basic premise of the PCCRC is this: Sometime, sooner or later, a stock will spike up or down (delta gains) or in volatility (Vega gains). In the meantime, you collect the time premiums from month to month until your mediocre trade turns into a winner. As you approach the end of the trade (let's say you are left with May shorts and June longs, you can once again rollover the June options to a longer expiry date with less volatile options (cheaper).
Your job is to transform the trade into a close as delta neutral as possible so that you keep in it. If you think this is not possible, or not worth it, just get out and look for other candidates. Think of what you did as a way to look for other opportunities.
Finally, we are all here learnings. This trade has features no other one has in terms of safety, but it has its drawbacks. With time and experience, you too will make it work.
Hi everyone. I found this site called tinyurl.com that reduces my long Platinum url's to practically nothing. Here is the LRCX trade:
http://tinyurl.com/qlcad
By the way LRCX volatility, following the strong decline during earnings is now jumping, making the trade profitable.
Juan,
"By the way LRCX volatility, following the strong decline during earnings is now jumping, making the trade profitable."
I did notice. **Smiles**
Howver, DNA declined further, so **Smiles**
You have a system here and it shows promise, I need to review what I have done and what you have done. I am just going to sit back, think, watch and perhaps ramble a bit more...
Have a nice Bank Holiday. Well were having one here in Britain. **Smiles**
Have a nice Bank Holiday. Well we're having one here in Britain. **Smiles**
**Smiles**
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