Update of Elliott wave analysis on the SPX

How to view the entire chart:


1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.


I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.


I Hope this helps,


Juan

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I have done a previous Elliott wave count on the S&P 500. To look at the longer term analysis I have done, visit this web site:
http://www.pathometrix.com/Frames.html

then click in the hypertext:
SPX 03/01/2006

Notice that my analysis suggests that the S&P500 is in a B wave series that started in Oct. 2003, as the Irak war started, and it is likely to approach 1400. The series is a double zigzag.

The double zigzag is a WXY series composed of 2 zigzags (waves W and Y) interrupted by a corrective (d3 in this case) series or wave X. Under this theory, wave Y is in progress since July 2004. My most recent analysis of the "Y" wave is shown below:


Note that wave "y" is incomplete, but it may be reaching the end. In fact, the sentiment appears to have changed in the past week. Using conventional technical analysis we notice a break down of the S&P500 decisively below the 50dMA, from which it has bounce in the past 2 occassions. Notice also that the stochastics is travelling down with no evidence of a reversal, yet there is a clear indication that the price may break below the Bollinger Band. The bearish trend may continue for the next weak or two, as suggested by this chart.




The main question for the Elliottician is: Has wave y concluded? If wave Y has truly concluded, then the historical wave B could have concluded too, and we would be entering a bear marker to match the 1999-2003 bear market (wave A). This new bear market would be wave C, necessary for the begining of a powerfull bull market.

My most current analysis suggests that wave "Y" is itself a double zigzag which is now concluded. Thus we have likely started the second leg of a bear market that started in the year 200-2001.

Our best approach under any circumstance is to trade the PCCRC. As we have seen a strong decline in the markets favors the trade as Vega increases along with a decline in Delta. I will keep on posting on the PCCRC.