GOOG

How to view the entire chart:


1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.


I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.


I Hope this helps,


Juan

---------------------------------------
I rarely show you trades retrospectively because I feel that it is easy (an unfair) for me to show you what worked, without showing the potential pitfalls that often appear when a trade is for real. My objective is to show you the complexities of the Elliott wave analysis in what appears to be an easy pattern, such as that of GOOG. At the end of this article is my current trade on GOOG, which is only now becoming profitable after almost a month.

It is rare to see now-a-days a typical impulse series, particularly when that series is right off the IPO. Perhaps only a stock with a well recognized business and profitability could have done this. GOOG has become more than a household name, so one should not be surprised of the impulsive nature of this pattern.



Note how the peak of wave I has formed right around new year 2006. If follows that a powerfull wave III should be forthcoming but just the same, one should be carefull in examining the short-term corrective series which may still be incomplete.

Unlike the first chart above, which suggests that a wave II has been completed, a detailed examination of the proposed wave II does not offer that alternative. As you see above, the proposed wave C would be shorter than wave A, making was elliotticians calll an irregular flat. In fact there are several alternatives that suggest that the correction is not complete. The best of them in my opinion is shown below and suggests that a complex wave A of II is the only completed series. Wave B of II is in progress. Wave C should take GOOG even below the low point of wave A.

For now we set our target on GOOG to between $440 and $500/share. Unless GOOG breaks out strongly to new highs, we are going to have to accept that wave II is still in progress, and that the aggressive wave III is going to have to wait.



The REO (Refined Elliott Oscillator) is showing a strong bullish configuration. Both slow and fast curves are pointing upward. My guess is that GOOG may form a double top, which is a very bearish configuration, but for now there are a few points go go.


I hope to use this opportunity to show you how to transition my bullish PCCRC into a bearish position while taking profits adn reducing costs a the same time. For now, here is my trade:

This is the URL, if you have Platinum: http://tinyurl.com/z6dme

Or the picture itself:

I did not start this trade with any good reason other than the hope that wave A of II was finished and that a bounce would give me the opportunity to profit from DELTA handling of this trade. However, the rally has erased the possibility of VEGA gains. This is a good example of how the PCCRC can make you money when only DELTA cooperates. Pay close attention to the trade on the day of entry and its transition to profitability in the last few days.

How do I make this trade bearish when the time comes? a simple sale of one of the long-term calls would transform this trade into delta neutral. Sell two and you'll make it outright bearish. However, I am willing to wait a few days before making such transformation. Please make sure to make any comments you'd like.