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Monday, August 14, 2006

Closed my RIG PCCRC - break even.

How to view the entire chart:


1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.


I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.


I Hope this helps,


Juan
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RIG declined much and without much of a volatility spike over the last month. Today RIG hit a new low, making my loss into a small profit. Considering the cost in commissions I was very close to break even.

At this point with the stock at $65/share and the long calls and puts at $85 and $80, respectively, I have little hope to make money by shorting Sept. The most likely scenario is that I will have a hard time avoiding assignment, which could steal a lot of my attention. However, my case is made that there is very low risk in this trades, even when everything goes completely wrong, as the stock declined in low volatility.

Check the trade in my shared folder if you'd like to play with it. Here is the trade list:



Here is what I posted as my rational for entering this trade:

I have opened a PCCRC on RIG today.
Here is the confirmation from Interactive Brokers:
This time, I have the long calls are at a higher strike price than the remaining legs:

I am interested in the volatility skew. Note the differential between short and long-term IV. As usual, the IV on the long options is below 40%:


I believe that the biggest problem with this trade was to go all the way to January for the longs. If I had stayed with November options, the movement in the stock would have been enough for a good profit. Consider going far with your longs, but not too far!!

Juan

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