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Tuesday, August 28, 2007

The rally may be over for the DOW

I am enclosing here my most recent RET analysis of the DOW.

As you below, a double zigzag is in progress. Wave X may be completed now. In the next few days (hours) we may have confirmation and a target with RET (remember the DZ is a WXY series).


Click on the image to enlarge it.

Note also that the 200dMA on the Dow and Nasdaq are being retested. The 200dMA on the SPX has already been violated. The 50 and the 20dMA in all indices are pointing down. The 200dMA will follow, IMHO. Therefore, we are in a bear market, by my definition.

4 comments:

buyhyderabadhomes said...

I was trying to see the progress and adjustments made to the PCCRC trades in DVD. Can you pls suggest as how i can see them in Platinum

RS

Juan Sarmiento said...

Ragu, there are two things I owe.

1. create a matrix of actions on the PCCRC.
2. create a Platinum folder to share with all trades in the disks.

Please give me some time, and I will do this for you.!

Guppy Galaxy said...

Juan,

On 29 Aug, the broader market has a strong rebound, Dow is above 20DMA, SPX is above 20DMA and 200DMA now. So at what price level will you change your bearish view ?

Chiu

Juan Sarmiento said...

Chiu, there are two traps I am not going to fall into:

1. portrait myself as a Guru that can tell you what to do, or sell my opinions as fact. I have been bearish since 2000, and there is noting that can change that, short of the Dow hitting the 2002 lows. So I urge you to take my comments with a grain of salt.

Here is what I offer as a direct answer to your question:
a. Higher highs and higher lows. I guess we should start with higher lows.
b. The 200dMA maintaining its upward direction. That goes for the SPX and Nasdaq too.
c. The averages staying above that average.
d. The Stochastics giving me a buy signal while the 3 conditions above are maintained.
4. A reversal in the 50dMA.


2. I am not going to trade under the assumption that the markets are going up or down. I trade my PCCRC's under the stated set ups that are in the overall Vega sensitive and Delta Neutral.

I have found a way to make money without worrying about where the markest are going. Each of my positions are equivalent to owning the stocks in terms of price, but with limited risk. I do not trade stocks, or own them long-term. If and when the Dow and SPX test the lows of 2002, then I might buy share of the SPX.

EWI