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Monday, March 10, 2008

I am not losing my mind

One of the best and unexpected side effects of the PCCRC is my new found ability keep cool while everyone else seems to be losing their mind! Some try to call the bottom, others see no capitulation, others don’t want to use the “R” word (recession), others are in denial, others don’t even want to admit that the trend is down.

So far this year, my paper trading account is UP from $145,000 to $165,000 since January 1st. This is a $20,000 increase or 12% yes, INCREASE. The irony is that traders I know are not making money because they are in denial, failing to recognize, or admit that the market is in a down trend. This from people who would tell me: “Juan, the trend is your friend”. The truth is that most traders simply cannot manage their emotions well enough to make transitions from bullish to bearish, and are usually caught with too many bullish positions and unable to close them in favor of new bearish ones.

I don’t fault them, this is what happens to most traders. I know, I was one of them until recently. The syndrome probably manifest itself as a paralyzing fear leaving the trade with a glimmer of hope that the market would rebound quickly so the could recover some of the losses, and perhaps free some of the tied up cash in stock and bullish spread. And this may well happen, and then it will be the turn of the bears to cover shorts in a panic. For most of us, we’d go from bullish to bearish to bullish again, leaving profits on the table and our confidence on the floor.

I am not saying that I am smarter than the rest, I cannot say that I called the top and now am rejoicing on my bear profits, not at all! What I am saying is that I am prepared to see the market go UP or DOWN at a moment’s notice. What I am saying is that my approach has proven profitable has demonstrated by my paper trading account, regardless of market conditions, and that I do not have to “forecast” the markets. In fact, I have been reading Elliott wave charts since 1995, and I can see with great relief: “I am glad I don’t have to be right all the time”. In fact, I don’t have to be right at all! As long as I pick momentum stocks with the potential for huge Delta OR Vega gains and the protection against Theta decay. What I am saying is that the volatility of the market, which is the reflection of the fears of others, cause me no fear whatsoever. It seems like my profits are the result of the fears of others, but if they suddenly come down, the fear subsides and they start buying stock, I will be here to collect profits from my PCCRC.

I am sharing all this information with you, so that you too profit, even during periods of uncertainty and fear. You should believe me when I say that the control over my fear gives me a clarity of thought, I never experienced before in a market like today’s. I invite you to share my experience. When you do, please understand that profits could only come to you if you share the abundance by Paying it Forward!

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Juan,
I'm not doubting the PCCRC as a trading tool.
It's great to see you post and defend it against so many odds. Trading directionally is not a piece of cake, as trading is nothing easy anyway.
Dan

Juan Sarmiento said...

Well, I have done that too. For years I only traded the Elliott wave using calls.

For many the goal is to live of the profits of trading. For others the dream is to make $1M or more!

In the way there, it makes sense to have a strategy that you can trust and consider reliable with few losers and the potential for big winners.

Limiting the losses to a max. of 2% of your account and a capital investment of 10% of your total account, you should be able to make big trades without the fear of it all going bad in a single one day decline, such as it occurred on the first trading day after 9/11. This is the responsible way of trading but also the fearless way of trading.

I am confident I can read a chart as well as anyone I know, but to depend on that ability is not the way to go... Very often I am wrong, and the market is going to do the unexpected. It pays to have all the Greeks working for you.

Prashant said...
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