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Thursday, January 21, 2010

Elliott Wave Forecast, S&P500 futures

Here is my Elliott Wave analysis of the Bull Market that started in March 2009. I give you a few minutes to reflect on it.


PLEASE CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ENLARGE IT



The participants to my private group, and vistiors to this blog have been looking at my charts for a while.

Over the weekend, I made a short video clip explaining my views and why I though the top had been reached.

If you'd like to see my forecast, please send an e-mail to Paperprofit1@mac.com. All requests are welcome.

2 comments:

pipercolt said...

nice video juan, and adds some clarity putting all of the concepts together. that being said if this is the top, as u said where do we go from here

Juan Sarmiento said...

Hi Pipercolt,

Please feel free to e-mail me at paperprofit1@mac.com, for more information about my group

As to "where do we go from here" question, I will go out on a limb and say that the markets can correct as much as 50% (although Fibonacci retracements can be 38.2, 50 and 61.8%) from the lows of March 2009. There are plenty of good technicians that have been saying for a while that the markets should break to new lows. I do NOT believe that, based on my longer-term analysis of the Elliott wave. I think that the correction that begun in 2000 is a textbook "FLAT" and was completed in March 2009. There is a lot of ambiguity since then, because the double zigzag is not specific enough. The FLAT is, and usually is followed by a strong counter trend. The bear market is over, in my mind, but we will have (and should have) strong corrections without new lows.... WE will see.

Forecasting is a dangerous business, so I can tell you were we are, were we have been and what to expect from now on. The pattern that begun in March 2009 is now complete, a counter trend will follow.

EWI