1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
2. Try right click on the chart itself and open it on a separate window.
I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.
I Hope this helps,
Juan
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Due to the interest AMZN has generated, let us start from the begining with the historical chart on AMZN. As you can see, the most likely count on AMZN is a double 3. This is a corrective pattern that may be summarized as W-X-Y. In more detail , a double 3 (D3 for short) is structured as a-b-c-a-b-c-a-b-c. According to this count, we would be in the third wave "b" which is currently in progress. The third wave c would be an impulse wave up. AMZN should approach or exceed the highs of 2000, eventually. As you can see, the proposed top (wave Y) of the Supercycle D3 would fall within a very large trapezoid.
Thus, we need to do some further analysis of the incomplete wave Y, to see if we can narrow the targets some more. Next, we go to the bottom of Oct. 2002, which was actually the bottom for many stocks. This would be the begining of wave Y. Wave Y in a D3 should be a corrective pattern such a zigzag (a-b-c), a flat (a-b-c) or even another D3 (w-x-y). The preferred count suggests that wave (y) of wave Y is now in progress.
In fact, wave Y looks like is itself a D3 or a "fractal" of the larger, historical D3. The count below calls for a rally to about $100 to occur between Jan 2006 and Feb 2007.
Starting from the bottom of wave (x) in late april, we monitor the progress of wave (y). As the larger wave Y, wave (y) could take several forms, hence the erratic progress on AMZN. My favorite alternative for wave (y) so far is the one below. As you can see, as the larger magnitude fractals, this is also a D3 with wave x in progress. Once wave x is complete, AMZN will rally to new highs to complete the D3 pattern(s) in play now. If my preferred count is correct, AMZN should not break below $35. If it does, another count would have to come into play (I DO have several alternatives).
Our job would be to wait until AMZN bottoms and then enter a long-term position. a strong rally with 2x increase in volume would the signal we need to be sure that the y wave is under way.
1 comment:
ROLLING ‘RAMBLINGS’ UPDATE.
##This took some considerable time to accumulate and there could be errors in my reading of all the graphs Juan has kindly published for us. My own comments and observations have not been updated.
Please post any errors I have made and then these 'ramblings' by me will be updated in the future.
What is happeneing is that we keep chasing further trades and not keeping an eye on those already identified.
AAPL (17th Aug 2005 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $49.20 and $51.30 in August 2005.
(12th October 2005) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $63.50 and $74.50 between Nov 2005 and Feb 2006.
AAPL, projection of $60, using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. I still think that is possible.
AMLN (19th September 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $30 and $53 between Dec 2005 and Dec 2008. Long term high possibly $94.
AMZN (17th Oct 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $55.00 and $64.00 between 10th Nov 2005 and mid January 2006.
In my previous posting, “AMZN a projection of $50.12, using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move.”
Look back a year and there was the same drop, but then a rise back up (A warning sign of predictability). I have created a Fibonacci retracement from the low of the drop in October 2004, to the high at the end of December 2004. I then moved that retracement move to the low of today. IF, and I repeat IF, we get the same move up that gives a target of $52 at the end of December 2005. A lot of Ifs, but it is going to be interesting. The mistake now would be for me to add further to these positions on AMZN.
AVID (6th September 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to $58.50 an $75 between Nov 2005 and Dec 2005.
BBY (4th Oct 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of ??? (***HK did ask, but Juan and myself were debating system methodology on the Blogger***) My GUESS is $40 and $33 between Oct 2005 and Nov 2005. ###Caution###
CREE (13th Aug 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $19.00 and $9.00 between July 2005 and February 2006.
DBD (2nd Oct 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $22.00 and $7.00 between 2008 and 2013. A long term projection. Possibly Zero!!
DE (8th Sept 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $59.00 and $44.00 (possibly as low as$30) between Oct 2005 and June 2005.
DNA (12th October 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $100 and $137.50 (possibly $156) between Nov 2005 and Feb 2006.
DNA has broken upwards from a small wedge pattern. This has been an explosive move. It has broken through the points, $87.35 and $87.60. I previously said that if it broke those I could see it return back up to $94-$95. +DI(14) has just broken above –DI(14).
FDX (21st Sept 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $94 and $106 between Dec 2005 and early 2005.
FDX Projection of $91.80 using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move, has been achieved today. Now there appears to be either a pause or a retracement for another possible entry position. Another one to watch for re-entry. Retracement projection target of $90.64 and $89.64.
GDT, a previous low of $60 made during a days trading is a possible target. It still wants to go down. Juans projection using Elliotician of between $60 and $48 looks on track. I haven’t entered this one, so far.
GGC spotted by HK, is still looking good, just have to bide our time on this one. I exited on the high of Friday and will enter again when it drops back and so forth.
NFLX (19th Oct 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $20.75 and $14.50 between Nov 2005 and March 2006.
NFLX, the ADX has turned on this one, with -DI(14) going above +DI(14). This confirms Juans recent observations. The move today (Wed 26th Oct 2005), was favourable. A 161% Fibonacci projection of $20.68 perhaps. Juans projection is between $14.5 and $20.75
PALM (23rd Sept 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $18.50 and $7.00 between May 2005 and Dec 2005.
PETM (25th August 2005/23rd Sept 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $21.50 and $15.50 between Nov 2005 and Feb 2006.
PETM, which I am still in. There is a doji and the previous high has not been achieved, I am wondering whether Juans previous projection is still holding on this one. Time decay has worked in my favour
RHAT (27th Sept 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $27.00 and $50.00 between Sept 2005 and May 2006.
RHAT Resistances of $22.05 has been broken. There is one at $22.42, with a fibonacci projection of $24.20 using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. Again this is possible
RRGB (13th Aug 2005 – BEARISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target DOWN to a range of $25 and $8 between Oct 2005 (April 2006) and Nov 2005 (Nov 2006).
SGR (31st August 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $31.00 and $41.00 (possibly as high as $52) between Dec 2005 and Oct 2006.
SGR Currently up to $26.51. I am not in the trade unfortunately, but I have a projection of $28.42 using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move. Watching for a retracement before the target before entering. Juans previous projection was $30.50 to $40.05 short term and $30.50 and $52 long term. One to watch for an entry perhaps. $25.31 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). $24.34 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
SLAB (24th Oct 2005 – BULLISH Trade) Using the light green box, Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $36.50 and $46.50 between Nov 2005 and early Feb 2006.
Using the red box, Juan’s Elliotician projection target UP to a range of $39.00 and $54 between mid Dec 2005 and late 2006.
SLAB Juans likely projection is at $46. The 38.2% retracement has occurred very quickly. I think it is time to enter this one, as Juan has done today (Wed 26th Oct 2005). Using a 23.6% fibonacci 'step up' from the previous move, would give $34.92.
XLNX (10th October 2005 – BEARISH Trade was alerted, but NO Elliotician projection target given.
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