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Monday, November 07, 2005

Candidates for Nov. 8th, 2005

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1. Try clicking on the name of the most recent article in the column on the right. This will remove the "Archives" list.
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I am sorry that I cannot always make the chart small enough to fit neatly on the left column. I want you to be able to see the details I want to point out.


I Hope this helps,


Juan

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These three candidates are to be considered as trades for tomorrow. QDEL as bullish trades and NTES as bearish.

QDEL triggered my system on Monday, but HAIN and NTES are sure to trigger it tomorrow as they were big movers in after hourse trading. Just the same, take a look at the news to study the catalyst for each trade.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=e&s=NTES%2c+QDEL%2c

QDEL was hyped by Jim Cramer on Friday, and today jumped significantly in relation to the potential Avian Flu epidemic. This is the kind of catalyst that may or may not work out, but if it does materialize, it will indeed be a big mover. This is a highly speculative trade. The RET analysis suggests that is might just work, with a target of 20 to 30.

http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/onedaywonder/index.cfm?story=20051107&afl=yahoo



NTES reported after hours and it was falling strongly after the company said that in the next quarter, earnings will be flat. The RET analysis is quite bearish, and a trade may be a good idea.


I will give you an update a few hours after opening, depending on how the stocks react after the opening.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Juan,

A couple of interesting Stocks there. I shall review them later in Metastock.

SLAB has steadily gone up, after I exted it. **Smiles**

Thanks again.

Anonymous said...

QDEL - My guess QDEL is going to $20.

NTES - I can see a 'corrective phase', a five wave pullback part of wave a, 3 wave upward swing as wave b, and now perhaps a five wave pullbacl to perhaps $73/$74.
What could happen over the next few days is perhaps a triangle formation. Let us wait and see.

Anonymous said...

As to HAIN, uncertain about the amount of pullback, with regards to whether it goes down further or up. Not sure.

Anonymous said...

QDEL and NTES are worth entering if they look promising today after opening.

That is my opinion for what it is worth. **Smiles**

Juan Sarmiento said...

I withdraw HAIN, I really do not have an opinion on it. Actually, it seems like it is just Cramer hype.
I will let 1 hr, at least, to go buy today for NTES, to make sure I don't get in at the peak of volatility, as I have done lately.

I will keep you posted

Juan Sarmiento said...

NTES has gone down quite a bit, I expect a bounce. I am not jumping in yet.
QDEL is pulling back. I am looking for a buy signal later on.
TOL has triggered my system

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/realestate/10251707.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Anonymous said...

Juan,
The IV of both TOL and NTES are at the high side. It looks like the IV of NTES may fall to below 40 and TOL to below 46. It may be worth waiting for the IV to fall to these level before entering.

The bid/ask spread for QDEL is quite large.

Juan Sarmiento said...

Let's stay out of QDEL for now, we can wait until there is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Oscillators are way overbought.

NTES looks really good, as oscillators are pointing down still (no where near oversold yet). I am waiting for a short-term entry point, looking at the 60 min chart oscillators.

TOL has been going down for quite a while, so I think that it is not the best choice right now.

RIMM has retraced almost 50% from the Sept highs to Oct lows, however, the sell signal is not yet in place.

DE has retraced close to 38.2% from Aug highs to Oct lows, the sell signal may be close.

Anonymous said...

DRIV has moved down today. This could go down further. It has been a waiting game on this one and perhaps our patience will be rewarded.

Anonymous said...

Are you entering NTES for a short after it's down so much, Juan?

Anonymous said...

Are you entering NTES for a short after it's down so much, Juan?

Anonymous said...

Are you entering NTES for a short after it's down so much, Juan?

Juan Sarmiento said...

Acountholder, good question, this is always the dilema.

According to my Elliott wave analysis, it looks like NTES could go as low as $30. BUT it may be short term oversold, and jumping too quickly may be counterproductive. Volatility will decrease shortly, and the long puts will be cheaper.

Looking at the Stochastics and MACD oscillators, it may appear that the stock may continue its decline shortly.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NTES,uu%5Bw,a%5Ddaclyyay%5Bdb%5D%5Bpd20,2!b50!f%5D%5Bvc60%5D%5BiUah12,26,9!Lp14,3,3%5D&pref=G

If you have a real time quote service, like IQCHARTS.com, which I use, you will find useful to follow the stochastics in the 60 min chart. Here the stock is oversold, so a small bounce may still occur.

If you use the Fibonacci retracement tool, you could probably enter the trade if there is a bounce to $69.

If the stock decides to continue down, you may miss the move altogether.

This is when you do what your got tells you.

EWI