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In this clip I describe what to do when earnings produces an IV spike in your short-term options.
http://www.pathometrix.com/Movies/Earnings.mov
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4 comments:
Juan,
Answer to wave count for SPX. I take Impulsive series for the wave pattern. Reason is that I read with Elliot Pros, that all large patterns for stocks are impulse, except for currencies and commodities. Therefore my bias setting is with Impulse.
However what is interesting is that I am bullish just like you.
Varun said: I read with Elliot Pros, that all large patterns for stocks are impulse, except for currencies and commodities
I don't think that this is the case. I am not sure what an "Elliott Pro" would be, but I can tell you that a double zigzag can certainly be long-term. In fact, take a look at this count in the DOW since the lows of 1929!!! :
Here is the site:
http://www.wavechart.com/free_elliott_wave_stock_market_forecast.htm
Here is the count:
http://www.wavechart.com/ch101/long1.gif
While some Elliotticians (like Prechter) would suggest that the DOW had hit the historical 5th wave, others think that the dow is currently in wave X of a double zigzag (WXY). In fact the low of 2002 was wave B of Y.
So don't outright ruleout the double zigzags in the SPX, instead try to see which one of your counts (be it an impulse or a double zigzag) better fits the Elliott rules.
Varum, I am here to help, if you'd like to send me some charts and discuss them by e-mail, or if you have a way to post them in the internet, just refer to the address of the chart and we could discuss them here.
Juan,
I have a potential trade on HSY, given to me by another Optionetics student using Advanced Get. He has found this using a weekly scan today and what is interesting is that there is conflicting signals in Adv Get and what I can see in Elliottician.
It would be interesting to see your analysis of this potential trade using different time frames. In both Advanced Get and Elliottician there are strong indications that it will perhaps be in the high $60s by March 2006. However, in the short term, both packages seem to suggest and continuatio down to somewhere around the $50 mark.
Your consideration greatly appreciated please.
Juan,
Thanks for your post. Here is my link for forcast.
http://optforoptions.blogspot.com/2006/01/sp500-forcast.html
I have been getting reasonable level of accuracy on S&P500. However, I have not got any good predictable counts on DOW. Will do some more research and count.
Thanks
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